If the bond market is correct, the U.S. economy is definitely heading into a recession. Over the past 50 years, there have been six previous occasions when the yield on three-month Treasury bonds has risen above the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds, and in each of those instances a recession has followed. Now it has happened again, and this comes at a time when a whole host of other economic indicators are screaming that a recession is coming. Of course we have seen recession indicators triggered at other times in recent years, and the Federal Reserve was able to intervene and successfully extend this cycle on multiple occasions. But now that the global economy is clearly the weakest it has been since the last recession, have we finally reached a breaking point?
Many on Wall Street are taking what happened at the end of last week extremely seriously. According to CNBC, we have not seen a yield curve inversion of this nature in 3,009 trading days…
Short-term government fixed income yields are now ahead of the longer part of the curve, delivering a strong recession indication that hasn’t happened since 2007.
The spread, or yield curve, between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes just broke the longest streak ever of being above 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point. The two maturities were last below that level in September 2007, a run of 3,009 trading days, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
3,009 trading days is a very, very long time.
And now we will see how inverted the curve becomes, because as Zero Hedge has aptly pointed out, the more inverted the curve become the “higher the odds of a recession”…
Why is the inversion of the 3 Month-10 Year curve – the first since 2007 – such a momentous occasion? Because not only is said inversion the most accurate recession leading indicator, having correctly “predicted” the last 6 recessions with no false positives, most recently inverting in 1989, in 2000 and in 2006, with recessions prompting starting in 1990, 2001 and 2008….
… it also feeds directly into every Wall Street recession model: the more inverted it is, the higher the odds of a recession.
To get an idea of what the models are currently showing, just check out this chart. At this moment, the odds of another recession are the highest they have been since the last one.
Many investors were hoping that the bond market would have better news for us on Monday, but instead things got even worse…
On Friday, markets were spooked when the yield curve inverted, a reliable recession signal though usually not an immediate one. That means the rate on a lower duration instrument rose above a longer duration security’s yield. In this case, it was the yield on the 3-month bill, at 2.44 percent Monday, moving above the 10-year yield, which sank as low as 2.38 percent, a more than 2-year low.
I know that just about everybody in America is writing about the Mueller Report right now, and I just posted an article about it too, but the outcome of that investigation is not going to change the trajectory of the global economy. It has been slowing down for quite some time, and that is the primary reason why we have seen an inversion of the yield curve…
“Yield curves are responding to what they see, to what I believe is a global economic slowdown,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “You don’t see this kind of move in curves, not just here but everywhere, unless you get one.”
Global central banks are already jumping into action, and I expect a tremendous amount of intervention as global economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
But there is only so much that they can do, and even though they have pulled a few rabbits out of the hat in recent years, at some point they are going to completely lose control.
Already, we are starting to see things happen that are very reminiscent of the last recession. For example, we are on pace for the worst year for store closings in all of U.S. history, and another major retailer just announced that they will be closing all their stores…
LifeWay Christian Resources announced Wednesday that it will be closing all remaining 170 stores this year and focusing on online sales. Carol Pipes, director of corporate communications for LifeWay, posted the announcement on the company’s website, explaining that it was “a strategic shift of resources to a dynamic digital strategy.”
Communities all over America, especially the more economically-depressed ones, are going to start looking really bleak as the number of empty buildings continues to rise. This is something that I have warned about for a long time, and now it is happening on a massive scale.
As I end this article, I once again want to mention a factor that is going to have an enormous impact on our economy throughout the rest of this year. The flooding in the middle portion of the nation has destroyed thousands of farms, and the National Weather Service is warning that the flooding that we have seen so far is just “a preview of what we expect throughout the rest of the spring”. This is already the worst flooding disaster for U.S. farmers in modern American history, and it is going to get much, much worse.
We are going to see another huge surge in farm bankruptcies, thousands of farmers will not be able to plant crops at all this year, food prices are going to rise dramatically, and a lot of families all over America are going to have a real problem making their food budgets stretch far enough.
There are so many factors hammering our economy right now. If the Federal Reserve is able to pull another rabbit out of the hat this time, it will be nothing short of a major miracle.
We are literally at a critical tipping point, and it is not going to be easy to pull us back from the brink this time.
Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Sunday, March 17, 2019
Thousands pack showroom at Treasure at Tampines’ opening weekend
SINGAPORE — Close to 7,000 visitors thronged the showroom of what is touted to be the largest private condominium launched in Singapore, with over 2,200 units set to go on sale.
Launched on Friday (March 15), Treasure at Tampines sits on top of the former Tampines Court, a Housing and Urban Development Company (HUDC) property which was sold en bloc for S$970 million in August 2017.
Developed jointly by Sim Lian Group and Sim Lian Holdings, the condominium spans 650,000 square feet (sq ft) and has a 99-year lease starting from Nov 29 last year. It is expected to be ready for buyers to move in by 2023.
The condominium comprises one- to five-bedroom units, with sizes ranging from 463 sq ft to 1,722 sq ft. With an indicative price of S$585,000 for a one-bedroom unit and at least S$1.88 million for a five-bedder, its developer said the condominium is priced at about S$1,280 psf on average.
ZACD Group executive director Nicholas Mak said the pricing is “quite reasonable” as it is within the range of a new 99-year leasehold private condominium in that area.
Among some of the interested home buyers TODAY spoke to while visiting the showroom, a few have already set their minds on purchasing a unit.
Mr Triston Tan, 47, said he has already submitted a cheque to indicate his interest in a two-bedroom unit which he intends to acquire as an investment.
The equipment engineer and his wife, Ms Catherine Teo, 47, live in a five-room Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat in Tampines and have no intention to sell it.
This means they would have to pay a 12 per cent Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), which is imposed on buyers getting a second residential property.
Mr Tan said they will have to bear with it since they made the decision to invest, although they are concerned about servicing the mortgage loan in the future.
“We have to plan properly. We don’t want to keep topping up cash, and (our) commitments (in) other (areas have) to come down,” he added.
The ABSD rate was previously 7 per cent before it was increased to the current rate as part of the cooling measures imposed in July last year.
Married couples who sold off their first property within six months of purchasing a completed property or receiving the Temporary Occupation Permit for uncompleted units are however eligible for a ABSD remission.
Another showroom visitor, Melvin Goh, 37, is also looking to submit his cheque on Monday for a one-bedroom unit he intends to get as a form of investment.
He lives in a five-room HDB unit in Tampines and said that there is “no choice” but to pay the ABSD.
Other visitors adopted a “wait-and-see approach” and said they would look at other launches in the eastern region.
One of them is Mrs Vinita Malekar, 47, who lives with her husband in a five-room HDB flat in Bedok and is looking to upgrade.
Having to come up with the ABSD upfront poses a problem, Mr Chandra Malekar, 54, said, and so the couple is shopping around for a smaller unit than they were aiming for.
“Definitely we want to go for a bigger house, a four-bedroom. But the cost also goes higher right? It definitely puts a strain on us,” said the housewife.
Mdm June Tan, 63, is also looking to buy a second property in the eastern region as an investment. The retiree lives in a three-bedroom freehold condominium in Geylang, which she is looking to move from after her husband died last year.
She is looking to buy the next property under her 21-year-old daughter’s name, as she can then avoid paying the 12 per cent tax. The current condo in Geylang is in Mdm Tan's sole name and her daughter has no property to her name.
ABSD is not refunded for singles even after they have sold off their first property within six months of purchasing a completed property or receiving the Temporary Occupation Permit.
“Isn’t the law very weird? Just because my husband died, I cannot get back my 12 per cent?... I didn’t ask for my husband to pass away,” Mdm Tan said.
Launched on Friday (March 15), Treasure at Tampines sits on top of the former Tampines Court, a Housing and Urban Development Company (HUDC) property which was sold en bloc for S$970 million in August 2017.
Developed jointly by Sim Lian Group and Sim Lian Holdings, the condominium spans 650,000 square feet (sq ft) and has a 99-year lease starting from Nov 29 last year. It is expected to be ready for buyers to move in by 2023.
The condominium comprises one- to five-bedroom units, with sizes ranging from 463 sq ft to 1,722 sq ft. With an indicative price of S$585,000 for a one-bedroom unit and at least S$1.88 million for a five-bedder, its developer said the condominium is priced at about S$1,280 psf on average.
ZACD Group executive director Nicholas Mak said the pricing is “quite reasonable” as it is within the range of a new 99-year leasehold private condominium in that area.
Among some of the interested home buyers TODAY spoke to while visiting the showroom, a few have already set their minds on purchasing a unit.
Mr Triston Tan, 47, said he has already submitted a cheque to indicate his interest in a two-bedroom unit which he intends to acquire as an investment.
The equipment engineer and his wife, Ms Catherine Teo, 47, live in a five-room Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat in Tampines and have no intention to sell it.
This means they would have to pay a 12 per cent Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), which is imposed on buyers getting a second residential property.
Mr Tan said they will have to bear with it since they made the decision to invest, although they are concerned about servicing the mortgage loan in the future.
“We have to plan properly. We don’t want to keep topping up cash, and (our) commitments (in) other (areas have) to come down,” he added.
The ABSD rate was previously 7 per cent before it was increased to the current rate as part of the cooling measures imposed in July last year.
Married couples who sold off their first property within six months of purchasing a completed property or receiving the Temporary Occupation Permit for uncompleted units are however eligible for a ABSD remission.
Another showroom visitor, Melvin Goh, 37, is also looking to submit his cheque on Monday for a one-bedroom unit he intends to get as a form of investment.
He lives in a five-room HDB unit in Tampines and said that there is “no choice” but to pay the ABSD.
Other visitors adopted a “wait-and-see approach” and said they would look at other launches in the eastern region.
One of them is Mrs Vinita Malekar, 47, who lives with her husband in a five-room HDB flat in Bedok and is looking to upgrade.
Having to come up with the ABSD upfront poses a problem, Mr Chandra Malekar, 54, said, and so the couple is shopping around for a smaller unit than they were aiming for.
“Definitely we want to go for a bigger house, a four-bedroom. But the cost also goes higher right? It definitely puts a strain on us,” said the housewife.
Mdm June Tan, 63, is also looking to buy a second property in the eastern region as an investment. The retiree lives in a three-bedroom freehold condominium in Geylang, which she is looking to move from after her husband died last year.
She is looking to buy the next property under her 21-year-old daughter’s name, as she can then avoid paying the 12 per cent tax. The current condo in Geylang is in Mdm Tan's sole name and her daughter has no property to her name.
ABSD is not refunded for singles even after they have sold off their first property within six months of purchasing a completed property or receiving the Temporary Occupation Permit.
“Isn’t the law very weird? Just because my husband died, I cannot get back my 12 per cent?... I didn’t ask for my husband to pass away,” Mdm Tan said.
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Wedding Photography Services
We are a group of freelance photographers managed by professional agency.
Our prices are very affordable if not the cheapest in town.
Our services include pre-wedding studio + outdoor photography, ROM photography, Actual day journalistic wedding photography and so on.
We are currently looking for couples who want to engage Actual day wedding photographer for just S$100 (limited to 10 couples only)
I am still thinking of the places to go for my Outdoor PS. I like sea and sky. I also like old buildings and also flowers ....
Here are some places which I tot of. Any comments?
1) Botanic Gardens/Japanese Garden
2) Changi Beach (any nice beach to recommend)
3) Shophouses at Chinatown (old style)
4) Reservoir
some of following locations u may consider:
1) botanic garden - got waterfall, pond, green field.....
2) Sentosa - orchid garden got a very nice chapel, famous hai zi shui, beach, old house...
3) Marina city park - green field, pond...
4) Changi - lalang field, beach.....
5) Kent Ridge park
6) temples at pickering street & cicil street
7) Peranakan Place at Somerset
8) Sportiswood park - shophouses
9) Railway station
10) Labrador park - sunset
11) SAM
Japanese garden nothing much to take, don waste money go there take. My fren told me the photo turn out not really impressive. He told me must choose colorful background den the photo will turn out nice.
Our prices are very affordable if not the cheapest in town.
Our services include pre-wedding studio + outdoor photography, ROM photography, Actual day journalistic wedding photography and so on.
We are currently looking for couples who want to engage Actual day wedding photographer for just S$100 (limited to 10 couples only)
I am still thinking of the places to go for my Outdoor PS. I like sea and sky. I also like old buildings and also flowers ....
Here are some places which I tot of. Any comments?
1) Botanic Gardens/Japanese Garden
2) Changi Beach (any nice beach to recommend)
3) Shophouses at Chinatown (old style)
4) Reservoir
some of following locations u may consider:
1) botanic garden - got waterfall, pond, green field.....
2) Sentosa - orchid garden got a very nice chapel, famous hai zi shui, beach, old house...
3) Marina city park - green field, pond...
4) Changi - lalang field, beach.....
5) Kent Ridge park
6) temples at pickering street & cicil street
7) Peranakan Place at Somerset
8) Sportiswood park - shophouses
9) Railway station
10) Labrador park - sunset
11) SAM
Japanese garden nothing much to take, don waste money go there take. My fren told me the photo turn out not really impressive. He told me must choose colorful background den the photo will turn out nice.
Sunday, March 3, 2019
The Luxury Electric Car For the People Is Finally Here
As of late, seeing Elon Musk’s name in the headlines usually means he’s in trouble with the SEC or Space X just hit another historic milestone in the modern-day space race. This week, however, he’s switching it up with some good news about the long-promised and repeatedly delayed affordable version of the Tesla Model 3 — the $35,000 electric car is finally going into production, but there’s a major caveat.
To get the Model 3 down to $35,000 (a price-goal Tesla set for itself) Tesla had to make some difficult choices not just with the car, but also the company as a whole.
The entry-level electric car is significantly paired back on creature comforts, performance and range compared to the top-tier Model 3. With the Standard Range model, you’ll get a 220-mile range, 130 mph top speed and a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds. You can also opt for the Standard Range Plus for $2,000 more and get 20 extra miles on a charge, a higher top speed of 140mph and a 0.3-second quicker sprint to 60 mph.
They’re not earth-shattering specs, but the whole point of this car is getting this sort of tech wrapped in an attractive package and into the hands of the masses, not jaw-dropping performance. For comparison, the similarly priced Nissan Leaf returns a 151-mile range, and the Chevy Bolt gets a 235-mile range. What you don’t get with the Nissan and Chevy is Tesla’s looks, style and its designer nameplate.
Along with the pared down interior, basic interface and normal-car performance stats, Tesla made a seismic shift away from brick and mortar dealerships entirely to drop prices even further. “To achieve these prices while remaining financially sustainable, Tesla is shifting sales worldwide to online only.” The Tesla press release went on to say “Shifting all sales online, combined with other ongoing cost efficiencies, will enable us to lower all vehicle prices by about 6 percent on average, allowing us to achieve the $35,000 Model 3 price point earlier than we expected.”
In a conference call, Elon Musk also noted “[Tesla] will be closing some stores, and there will be some reduction in headcount as a result. Yeah, there’s no other way to provide this car and maintain sustainability. There’s no way around it.” Musk didn’t want to comment further on the “reduction in headcount,” so suffice to say it won’t be pretty.
To get the Model 3 down to $35,000 (a price-goal Tesla set for itself) Tesla had to make some difficult choices not just with the car, but also the company as a whole.
The entry-level electric car is significantly paired back on creature comforts, performance and range compared to the top-tier Model 3. With the Standard Range model, you’ll get a 220-mile range, 130 mph top speed and a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds. You can also opt for the Standard Range Plus for $2,000 more and get 20 extra miles on a charge, a higher top speed of 140mph and a 0.3-second quicker sprint to 60 mph.
They’re not earth-shattering specs, but the whole point of this car is getting this sort of tech wrapped in an attractive package and into the hands of the masses, not jaw-dropping performance. For comparison, the similarly priced Nissan Leaf returns a 151-mile range, and the Chevy Bolt gets a 235-mile range. What you don’t get with the Nissan and Chevy is Tesla’s looks, style and its designer nameplate.
Along with the pared down interior, basic interface and normal-car performance stats, Tesla made a seismic shift away from brick and mortar dealerships entirely to drop prices even further. “To achieve these prices while remaining financially sustainable, Tesla is shifting sales worldwide to online only.” The Tesla press release went on to say “Shifting all sales online, combined with other ongoing cost efficiencies, will enable us to lower all vehicle prices by about 6 percent on average, allowing us to achieve the $35,000 Model 3 price point earlier than we expected.”
In a conference call, Elon Musk also noted “[Tesla] will be closing some stores, and there will be some reduction in headcount as a result. Yeah, there’s no other way to provide this car and maintain sustainability. There’s no way around it.” Musk didn’t want to comment further on the “reduction in headcount,” so suffice to say it won’t be pretty.
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