SINGAPORE - The supply of car certificates of entitlement (COEs) for the May-July period will dip by 9.5 per cent to 5,875 per month - a much smaller drop than the 20 per cent shrinkage some motor industry players were expecting.
Announcing the quota on Thursday (April 18), the Land Transport Authority said there would be an average of 8,448 COEs per month for all vehicles - 3.5 per cent down from the current quota.
There will be 2,848 COEs per month for cars up to 1,600cc, 13.7 per cent less than currently. The supply for cars above 1,600cc or 130bhp will be 5 per cent lower at 2,278 per month.
The open category, which can be used for any vehicle type except motorcycles but which ends up mostly for bigger cars, will see a 5.7 per cent drop in supply to 749 COEs per month.
Commercial vehicle COE bidders will have 28.1 per cent more certificates at 779 per month.
For motorcycles, the COE supply will rise by 8.7 per cent to 1,794 per month.
The fact that the supply shrinkage is far smaller than feared should ease upward pressure on premiums, according to observers.
Car COEs have shot up by 22 per cent to 28 per cent in the last month.
Others, however, maintain that premiums will only ease if aggressive competition between private-hire operators cools.
Mr Ron Lim, general manager of Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, said: “Whether the current prices are sustainable will depend on how consumers react to the new quota.”
Thursday, April 18, 2019
Wednesday, March 27, 2019
Wall Street Red Flag: A Bond Market Indicator That Has Predicted Every Recession In The Last 50 Years Just Got Triggered
If the bond market is correct, the U.S. economy is definitely heading into a recession. Over the past 50 years, there have been six previous occasions when the yield on three-month Treasury bonds has risen above the yield on ten-year Treasury bonds, and in each of those instances a recession has followed. Now it has happened again, and this comes at a time when a whole host of other economic indicators are screaming that a recession is coming. Of course we have seen recession indicators triggered at other times in recent years, and the Federal Reserve was able to intervene and successfully extend this cycle on multiple occasions. But now that the global economy is clearly the weakest it has been since the last recession, have we finally reached a breaking point?
Many on Wall Street are taking what happened at the end of last week extremely seriously. According to CNBC, we have not seen a yield curve inversion of this nature in 3,009 trading days…
Short-term government fixed income yields are now ahead of the longer part of the curve, delivering a strong recession indication that hasn’t happened since 2007.
The spread, or yield curve, between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes just broke the longest streak ever of being above 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point. The two maturities were last below that level in September 2007, a run of 3,009 trading days, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
3,009 trading days is a very, very long time.
And now we will see how inverted the curve becomes, because as Zero Hedge has aptly pointed out, the more inverted the curve become the “higher the odds of a recession”…
Why is the inversion of the 3 Month-10 Year curve – the first since 2007 – such a momentous occasion? Because not only is said inversion the most accurate recession leading indicator, having correctly “predicted” the last 6 recessions with no false positives, most recently inverting in 1989, in 2000 and in 2006, with recessions prompting starting in 1990, 2001 and 2008….
… it also feeds directly into every Wall Street recession model: the more inverted it is, the higher the odds of a recession.
To get an idea of what the models are currently showing, just check out this chart. At this moment, the odds of another recession are the highest they have been since the last one.
Many investors were hoping that the bond market would have better news for us on Monday, but instead things got even worse…
On Friday, markets were spooked when the yield curve inverted, a reliable recession signal though usually not an immediate one. That means the rate on a lower duration instrument rose above a longer duration security’s yield. In this case, it was the yield on the 3-month bill, at 2.44 percent Monday, moving above the 10-year yield, which sank as low as 2.38 percent, a more than 2-year low.
I know that just about everybody in America is writing about the Mueller Report right now, and I just posted an article about it too, but the outcome of that investigation is not going to change the trajectory of the global economy. It has been slowing down for quite some time, and that is the primary reason why we have seen an inversion of the yield curve…
“Yield curves are responding to what they see, to what I believe is a global economic slowdown,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “You don’t see this kind of move in curves, not just here but everywhere, unless you get one.”
Global central banks are already jumping into action, and I expect a tremendous amount of intervention as global economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
But there is only so much that they can do, and even though they have pulled a few rabbits out of the hat in recent years, at some point they are going to completely lose control.
Already, we are starting to see things happen that are very reminiscent of the last recession. For example, we are on pace for the worst year for store closings in all of U.S. history, and another major retailer just announced that they will be closing all their stores…
LifeWay Christian Resources announced Wednesday that it will be closing all remaining 170 stores this year and focusing on online sales. Carol Pipes, director of corporate communications for LifeWay, posted the announcement on the company’s website, explaining that it was “a strategic shift of resources to a dynamic digital strategy.”
Communities all over America, especially the more economically-depressed ones, are going to start looking really bleak as the number of empty buildings continues to rise. This is something that I have warned about for a long time, and now it is happening on a massive scale.
As I end this article, I once again want to mention a factor that is going to have an enormous impact on our economy throughout the rest of this year. The flooding in the middle portion of the nation has destroyed thousands of farms, and the National Weather Service is warning that the flooding that we have seen so far is just “a preview of what we expect throughout the rest of the spring”. This is already the worst flooding disaster for U.S. farmers in modern American history, and it is going to get much, much worse.
We are going to see another huge surge in farm bankruptcies, thousands of farmers will not be able to plant crops at all this year, food prices are going to rise dramatically, and a lot of families all over America are going to have a real problem making their food budgets stretch far enough.
There are so many factors hammering our economy right now. If the Federal Reserve is able to pull another rabbit out of the hat this time, it will be nothing short of a major miracle.
We are literally at a critical tipping point, and it is not going to be easy to pull us back from the brink this time.
Many on Wall Street are taking what happened at the end of last week extremely seriously. According to CNBC, we have not seen a yield curve inversion of this nature in 3,009 trading days…
Short-term government fixed income yields are now ahead of the longer part of the curve, delivering a strong recession indication that hasn’t happened since 2007.
The spread, or yield curve, between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury notes just broke the longest streak ever of being above 10 basis points, or 0.1 percentage point. The two maturities were last below that level in September 2007, a run of 3,009 trading days, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
3,009 trading days is a very, very long time.
And now we will see how inverted the curve becomes, because as Zero Hedge has aptly pointed out, the more inverted the curve become the “higher the odds of a recession”…
Why is the inversion of the 3 Month-10 Year curve – the first since 2007 – such a momentous occasion? Because not only is said inversion the most accurate recession leading indicator, having correctly “predicted” the last 6 recessions with no false positives, most recently inverting in 1989, in 2000 and in 2006, with recessions prompting starting in 1990, 2001 and 2008….
… it also feeds directly into every Wall Street recession model: the more inverted it is, the higher the odds of a recession.
To get an idea of what the models are currently showing, just check out this chart. At this moment, the odds of another recession are the highest they have been since the last one.
Many investors were hoping that the bond market would have better news for us on Monday, but instead things got even worse…
On Friday, markets were spooked when the yield curve inverted, a reliable recession signal though usually not an immediate one. That means the rate on a lower duration instrument rose above a longer duration security’s yield. In this case, it was the yield on the 3-month bill, at 2.44 percent Monday, moving above the 10-year yield, which sank as low as 2.38 percent, a more than 2-year low.
I know that just about everybody in America is writing about the Mueller Report right now, and I just posted an article about it too, but the outcome of that investigation is not going to change the trajectory of the global economy. It has been slowing down for quite some time, and that is the primary reason why we have seen an inversion of the yield curve…
“Yield curves are responding to what they see, to what I believe is a global economic slowdown,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “You don’t see this kind of move in curves, not just here but everywhere, unless you get one.”
Global central banks are already jumping into action, and I expect a tremendous amount of intervention as global economic conditions continue to deteriorate.
But there is only so much that they can do, and even though they have pulled a few rabbits out of the hat in recent years, at some point they are going to completely lose control.
Already, we are starting to see things happen that are very reminiscent of the last recession. For example, we are on pace for the worst year for store closings in all of U.S. history, and another major retailer just announced that they will be closing all their stores…
LifeWay Christian Resources announced Wednesday that it will be closing all remaining 170 stores this year and focusing on online sales. Carol Pipes, director of corporate communications for LifeWay, posted the announcement on the company’s website, explaining that it was “a strategic shift of resources to a dynamic digital strategy.”
Communities all over America, especially the more economically-depressed ones, are going to start looking really bleak as the number of empty buildings continues to rise. This is something that I have warned about for a long time, and now it is happening on a massive scale.
As I end this article, I once again want to mention a factor that is going to have an enormous impact on our economy throughout the rest of this year. The flooding in the middle portion of the nation has destroyed thousands of farms, and the National Weather Service is warning that the flooding that we have seen so far is just “a preview of what we expect throughout the rest of the spring”. This is already the worst flooding disaster for U.S. farmers in modern American history, and it is going to get much, much worse.
We are going to see another huge surge in farm bankruptcies, thousands of farmers will not be able to plant crops at all this year, food prices are going to rise dramatically, and a lot of families all over America are going to have a real problem making their food budgets stretch far enough.
There are so many factors hammering our economy right now. If the Federal Reserve is able to pull another rabbit out of the hat this time, it will be nothing short of a major miracle.
We are literally at a critical tipping point, and it is not going to be easy to pull us back from the brink this time.
Sunday, March 17, 2019
Thousands pack showroom at Treasure at Tampines’ opening weekend
SINGAPORE — Close to 7,000 visitors thronged the showroom of what is touted to be the largest private condominium launched in Singapore, with over 2,200 units set to go on sale.
Launched on Friday (March 15), Treasure at Tampines sits on top of the former Tampines Court, a Housing and Urban Development Company (HUDC) property which was sold en bloc for S$970 million in August 2017.
Developed jointly by Sim Lian Group and Sim Lian Holdings, the condominium spans 650,000 square feet (sq ft) and has a 99-year lease starting from Nov 29 last year. It is expected to be ready for buyers to move in by 2023.
The condominium comprises one- to five-bedroom units, with sizes ranging from 463 sq ft to 1,722 sq ft. With an indicative price of S$585,000 for a one-bedroom unit and at least S$1.88 million for a five-bedder, its developer said the condominium is priced at about S$1,280 psf on average.
ZACD Group executive director Nicholas Mak said the pricing is “quite reasonable” as it is within the range of a new 99-year leasehold private condominium in that area.
Among some of the interested home buyers TODAY spoke to while visiting the showroom, a few have already set their minds on purchasing a unit.
Mr Triston Tan, 47, said he has already submitted a cheque to indicate his interest in a two-bedroom unit which he intends to acquire as an investment.
The equipment engineer and his wife, Ms Catherine Teo, 47, live in a five-room Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat in Tampines and have no intention to sell it.
This means they would have to pay a 12 per cent Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), which is imposed on buyers getting a second residential property.
Mr Tan said they will have to bear with it since they made the decision to invest, although they are concerned about servicing the mortgage loan in the future.
“We have to plan properly. We don’t want to keep topping up cash, and (our) commitments (in) other (areas have) to come down,” he added.
The ABSD rate was previously 7 per cent before it was increased to the current rate as part of the cooling measures imposed in July last year.
Married couples who sold off their first property within six months of purchasing a completed property or receiving the Temporary Occupation Permit for uncompleted units are however eligible for a ABSD remission.
Another showroom visitor, Melvin Goh, 37, is also looking to submit his cheque on Monday for a one-bedroom unit he intends to get as a form of investment.
He lives in a five-room HDB unit in Tampines and said that there is “no choice” but to pay the ABSD.
Other visitors adopted a “wait-and-see approach” and said they would look at other launches in the eastern region.
One of them is Mrs Vinita Malekar, 47, who lives with her husband in a five-room HDB flat in Bedok and is looking to upgrade.
Having to come up with the ABSD upfront poses a problem, Mr Chandra Malekar, 54, said, and so the couple is shopping around for a smaller unit than they were aiming for.
“Definitely we want to go for a bigger house, a four-bedroom. But the cost also goes higher right? It definitely puts a strain on us,” said the housewife.
Mdm June Tan, 63, is also looking to buy a second property in the eastern region as an investment. The retiree lives in a three-bedroom freehold condominium in Geylang, which she is looking to move from after her husband died last year.
She is looking to buy the next property under her 21-year-old daughter’s name, as she can then avoid paying the 12 per cent tax. The current condo in Geylang is in Mdm Tan's sole name and her daughter has no property to her name.
ABSD is not refunded for singles even after they have sold off their first property within six months of purchasing a completed property or receiving the Temporary Occupation Permit.
“Isn’t the law very weird? Just because my husband died, I cannot get back my 12 per cent?... I didn’t ask for my husband to pass away,” Mdm Tan said.
Launched on Friday (March 15), Treasure at Tampines sits on top of the former Tampines Court, a Housing and Urban Development Company (HUDC) property which was sold en bloc for S$970 million in August 2017.
Developed jointly by Sim Lian Group and Sim Lian Holdings, the condominium spans 650,000 square feet (sq ft) and has a 99-year lease starting from Nov 29 last year. It is expected to be ready for buyers to move in by 2023.
The condominium comprises one- to five-bedroom units, with sizes ranging from 463 sq ft to 1,722 sq ft. With an indicative price of S$585,000 for a one-bedroom unit and at least S$1.88 million for a five-bedder, its developer said the condominium is priced at about S$1,280 psf on average.
ZACD Group executive director Nicholas Mak said the pricing is “quite reasonable” as it is within the range of a new 99-year leasehold private condominium in that area.
Among some of the interested home buyers TODAY spoke to while visiting the showroom, a few have already set their minds on purchasing a unit.
Mr Triston Tan, 47, said he has already submitted a cheque to indicate his interest in a two-bedroom unit which he intends to acquire as an investment.
The equipment engineer and his wife, Ms Catherine Teo, 47, live in a five-room Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat in Tampines and have no intention to sell it.
This means they would have to pay a 12 per cent Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty (ABSD), which is imposed on buyers getting a second residential property.
Mr Tan said they will have to bear with it since they made the decision to invest, although they are concerned about servicing the mortgage loan in the future.
“We have to plan properly. We don’t want to keep topping up cash, and (our) commitments (in) other (areas have) to come down,” he added.
The ABSD rate was previously 7 per cent before it was increased to the current rate as part of the cooling measures imposed in July last year.
Married couples who sold off their first property within six months of purchasing a completed property or receiving the Temporary Occupation Permit for uncompleted units are however eligible for a ABSD remission.
Another showroom visitor, Melvin Goh, 37, is also looking to submit his cheque on Monday for a one-bedroom unit he intends to get as a form of investment.
He lives in a five-room HDB unit in Tampines and said that there is “no choice” but to pay the ABSD.
Other visitors adopted a “wait-and-see approach” and said they would look at other launches in the eastern region.
One of them is Mrs Vinita Malekar, 47, who lives with her husband in a five-room HDB flat in Bedok and is looking to upgrade.
Having to come up with the ABSD upfront poses a problem, Mr Chandra Malekar, 54, said, and so the couple is shopping around for a smaller unit than they were aiming for.
“Definitely we want to go for a bigger house, a four-bedroom. But the cost also goes higher right? It definitely puts a strain on us,” said the housewife.
Mdm June Tan, 63, is also looking to buy a second property in the eastern region as an investment. The retiree lives in a three-bedroom freehold condominium in Geylang, which she is looking to move from after her husband died last year.
She is looking to buy the next property under her 21-year-old daughter’s name, as she can then avoid paying the 12 per cent tax. The current condo in Geylang is in Mdm Tan's sole name and her daughter has no property to her name.
ABSD is not refunded for singles even after they have sold off their first property within six months of purchasing a completed property or receiving the Temporary Occupation Permit.
“Isn’t the law very weird? Just because my husband died, I cannot get back my 12 per cent?... I didn’t ask for my husband to pass away,” Mdm Tan said.
Wednesday, March 6, 2019
Wedding Photography Services
We are a group of freelance photographers managed by professional agency.
Our prices are very affordable if not the cheapest in town.
Our services include pre-wedding studio + outdoor photography, ROM photography, Actual day journalistic wedding photography and so on.
We are currently looking for couples who want to engage Actual day wedding photographer for just S$100 (limited to 10 couples only)
I am still thinking of the places to go for my Outdoor PS. I like sea and sky. I also like old buildings and also flowers ....
Here are some places which I tot of. Any comments?
1) Botanic Gardens/Japanese Garden
2) Changi Beach (any nice beach to recommend)
3) Shophouses at Chinatown (old style)
4) Reservoir
some of following locations u may consider:
1) botanic garden - got waterfall, pond, green field.....
2) Sentosa - orchid garden got a very nice chapel, famous hai zi shui, beach, old house...
3) Marina city park - green field, pond...
4) Changi - lalang field, beach.....
5) Kent Ridge park
6) temples at pickering street & cicil street
7) Peranakan Place at Somerset
8) Sportiswood park - shophouses
9) Railway station
10) Labrador park - sunset
11) SAM
Japanese garden nothing much to take, don waste money go there take. My fren told me the photo turn out not really impressive. He told me must choose colorful background den the photo will turn out nice.
Our prices are very affordable if not the cheapest in town.
Our services include pre-wedding studio + outdoor photography, ROM photography, Actual day journalistic wedding photography and so on.
We are currently looking for couples who want to engage Actual day wedding photographer for just S$100 (limited to 10 couples only)
I am still thinking of the places to go for my Outdoor PS. I like sea and sky. I also like old buildings and also flowers ....
Here are some places which I tot of. Any comments?
1) Botanic Gardens/Japanese Garden
2) Changi Beach (any nice beach to recommend)
3) Shophouses at Chinatown (old style)
4) Reservoir
some of following locations u may consider:
1) botanic garden - got waterfall, pond, green field.....
2) Sentosa - orchid garden got a very nice chapel, famous hai zi shui, beach, old house...
3) Marina city park - green field, pond...
4) Changi - lalang field, beach.....
5) Kent Ridge park
6) temples at pickering street & cicil street
7) Peranakan Place at Somerset
8) Sportiswood park - shophouses
9) Railway station
10) Labrador park - sunset
11) SAM
Japanese garden nothing much to take, don waste money go there take. My fren told me the photo turn out not really impressive. He told me must choose colorful background den the photo will turn out nice.
Sunday, March 3, 2019
The Luxury Electric Car For the People Is Finally Here
As of late, seeing Elon Musk’s name in the headlines usually means he’s in trouble with the SEC or Space X just hit another historic milestone in the modern-day space race. This week, however, he’s switching it up with some good news about the long-promised and repeatedly delayed affordable version of the Tesla Model 3 — the $35,000 electric car is finally going into production, but there’s a major caveat.
To get the Model 3 down to $35,000 (a price-goal Tesla set for itself) Tesla had to make some difficult choices not just with the car, but also the company as a whole.
The entry-level electric car is significantly paired back on creature comforts, performance and range compared to the top-tier Model 3. With the Standard Range model, you’ll get a 220-mile range, 130 mph top speed and a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds. You can also opt for the Standard Range Plus for $2,000 more and get 20 extra miles on a charge, a higher top speed of 140mph and a 0.3-second quicker sprint to 60 mph.
They’re not earth-shattering specs, but the whole point of this car is getting this sort of tech wrapped in an attractive package and into the hands of the masses, not jaw-dropping performance. For comparison, the similarly priced Nissan Leaf returns a 151-mile range, and the Chevy Bolt gets a 235-mile range. What you don’t get with the Nissan and Chevy is Tesla’s looks, style and its designer nameplate.
Along with the pared down interior, basic interface and normal-car performance stats, Tesla made a seismic shift away from brick and mortar dealerships entirely to drop prices even further. “To achieve these prices while remaining financially sustainable, Tesla is shifting sales worldwide to online only.” The Tesla press release went on to say “Shifting all sales online, combined with other ongoing cost efficiencies, will enable us to lower all vehicle prices by about 6 percent on average, allowing us to achieve the $35,000 Model 3 price point earlier than we expected.”
In a conference call, Elon Musk also noted “[Tesla] will be closing some stores, and there will be some reduction in headcount as a result. Yeah, there’s no other way to provide this car and maintain sustainability. There’s no way around it.” Musk didn’t want to comment further on the “reduction in headcount,” so suffice to say it won’t be pretty.
To get the Model 3 down to $35,000 (a price-goal Tesla set for itself) Tesla had to make some difficult choices not just with the car, but also the company as a whole.
The entry-level electric car is significantly paired back on creature comforts, performance and range compared to the top-tier Model 3. With the Standard Range model, you’ll get a 220-mile range, 130 mph top speed and a 0-60 mph time of 5.6 seconds. You can also opt for the Standard Range Plus for $2,000 more and get 20 extra miles on a charge, a higher top speed of 140mph and a 0.3-second quicker sprint to 60 mph.
They’re not earth-shattering specs, but the whole point of this car is getting this sort of tech wrapped in an attractive package and into the hands of the masses, not jaw-dropping performance. For comparison, the similarly priced Nissan Leaf returns a 151-mile range, and the Chevy Bolt gets a 235-mile range. What you don’t get with the Nissan and Chevy is Tesla’s looks, style and its designer nameplate.
Along with the pared down interior, basic interface and normal-car performance stats, Tesla made a seismic shift away from brick and mortar dealerships entirely to drop prices even further. “To achieve these prices while remaining financially sustainable, Tesla is shifting sales worldwide to online only.” The Tesla press release went on to say “Shifting all sales online, combined with other ongoing cost efficiencies, will enable us to lower all vehicle prices by about 6 percent on average, allowing us to achieve the $35,000 Model 3 price point earlier than we expected.”
In a conference call, Elon Musk also noted “[Tesla] will be closing some stores, and there will be some reduction in headcount as a result. Yeah, there’s no other way to provide this car and maintain sustainability. There’s no way around it.” Musk didn’t want to comment further on the “reduction in headcount,” so suffice to say it won’t be pretty.
Wednesday, February 20, 2019
COE prices close mostly higher in latest bidding exercise
SINGAPORE: Certificate of Entitlement (COE) premiums closed mostly higher in the latest bidding exercise on Wednesday (Feb 20).
For Category A cars, or those 1,600cc and below with horsepower not exceeding 130bhp, premiums closed at S$26,301, up from S$25,689 in the last exercise.
Premiums for larger and more powerful cars in Category B rose to S$35,403 from S$34,509.
COEs for commercial vehicles, which include goods vehicles and buses, rose to S$26,914 from S$26,378 in the previous bidding exercise.
For Category A cars, or those 1,600cc and below with horsepower not exceeding 130bhp, premiums closed at S$26,301, up from S$25,689 in the last exercise.
Premiums for larger and more powerful cars in Category B rose to S$35,403 from S$34,509.
COEs for commercial vehicles, which include goods vehicles and buses, rose to S$26,914 from S$26,378 in the previous bidding exercise.
Real Estate Mobile Marketing and Analytics
coqnit.com
Motorcycle premiums closed at S$3,689, down from S$3,709 in the last exercise.
Open category COEs, which can be used for any vehicle type but end up being used mainly for large cars, rose to S$36,667 from S$35,310.
A total of 6,445 bids were received, with a quota of 4,403 COEs available.
coqnit.com
Motorcycle premiums closed at S$3,689, down from S$3,709 in the last exercise.
Open category COEs, which can be used for any vehicle type but end up being used mainly for large cars, rose to S$36,667 from S$35,310.
A total of 6,445 bids were received, with a quota of 4,403 COEs available.
Monday, February 11, 2019
Tesla Faces Heavy Lift as Model 3 Enters Europe and China
For Tesla Inc. investors, the last year was all about whether the company could make enough cars at a stable rate. This year is going to be all about who would buy those cars.
As Tesla gears up to expand into Europe and China, investors and analysts are now focused on the demand trends experienced by the company in all of its markets. “Tesla has now shifted from a production story to a demand story,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a note to clients on Monday, adding that Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany are front and center as the countries with strong pent-up demand for Model 3s in Europe.
“The big question for investors will be watching this Model 3 demand trajectory throughout Europe to gauge the pace of unit deliveries and how quickly can it reach the 100,000 units delivery barometer over the next 12 months in this key region, with China also a demand driver/potential wild card,” the analyst wrote.
Tesla chief Elon Musk visited Europe over the weekend, stopping in Norway, which is the company’s third-biggest market, helped by generous incentives for low-emission vehicles and high taxes on gas-fueled cars. Separately, China’s state-run newspaper Global Times tweeted on Monday that the first shipment of the Model 3 had arrived at the Port of Tianjin, ready for delivery to Chinese customers.
The electric-vehicle maker kicked off this year on a dull note after fourth-quarter deliveries slightly lagged expectations, and multiple price cuts have followed for the Model 3 sedan to compensate for the gradual elimination of federal tax incentives. Tesla’s quarterly profit, reported in late January, also missed estimates and failed to inspire investor confidence.
Tesla stock had fallen more than 8 percent this year through Friday, before Monday’s gains. The S&P 500 Index gained 8 percent over the same period.
Yet despite the shaky numbers and a lackluster outlook, some say the company is on the right path. “We believe the last two quarters and recent guidance for first quarter have removed significant concerns for both production capability and profitability of the critical Model 3,” Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer wrote in a note. “As such, we see a more stable 2019 with far fewer concerns for investors in the company.”
Dorsheimer also upgraded Tesla to buy from hold, and raised his price traget to $450 from $330, saying the Street underappreciates the company’s progress in the electric vehicle market.
The steady advance of global automakers into the electric car market has weighed on Tesla’s valuation over the past twelve months, with Morgan Stanley calling Tesla’s 80 percent U.S. electric vehicle market share in 2018 unsustainable. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said he expected the “next serious competition” to come “from a ‘clean sheet’ start-up with access to talent & capital focused on the fastest growing segments of pickup trucks & SUVs.”
Tesla has long been a far-from-stable story. While the stock gained as much as 4.2 percent on Monday, investors should brace for a choppy ride this year.
“The profitability picture for 2019 and the all-important Model 3 demand trajectory in Europe for Tesla looks encouraging for Musk & Co., but there is clearly heavy lifting ahead around Europe logistics/cost-cutting/driving incremental U.S. demand that will remain overhangs and thus make Tesla a ‘prove me’ story the next few quarters,” Wedbush’s Ives said.
As Tesla gears up to expand into Europe and China, investors and analysts are now focused on the demand trends experienced by the company in all of its markets. “Tesla has now shifted from a production story to a demand story,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives wrote in a note to clients on Monday, adding that Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany are front and center as the countries with strong pent-up demand for Model 3s in Europe.
“The big question for investors will be watching this Model 3 demand trajectory throughout Europe to gauge the pace of unit deliveries and how quickly can it reach the 100,000 units delivery barometer over the next 12 months in this key region, with China also a demand driver/potential wild card,” the analyst wrote.
Tesla chief Elon Musk visited Europe over the weekend, stopping in Norway, which is the company’s third-biggest market, helped by generous incentives for low-emission vehicles and high taxes on gas-fueled cars. Separately, China’s state-run newspaper Global Times tweeted on Monday that the first shipment of the Model 3 had arrived at the Port of Tianjin, ready for delivery to Chinese customers.
The electric-vehicle maker kicked off this year on a dull note after fourth-quarter deliveries slightly lagged expectations, and multiple price cuts have followed for the Model 3 sedan to compensate for the gradual elimination of federal tax incentives. Tesla’s quarterly profit, reported in late January, also missed estimates and failed to inspire investor confidence.
Tesla stock had fallen more than 8 percent this year through Friday, before Monday’s gains. The S&P 500 Index gained 8 percent over the same period.
Yet despite the shaky numbers and a lackluster outlook, some say the company is on the right path. “We believe the last two quarters and recent guidance for first quarter have removed significant concerns for both production capability and profitability of the critical Model 3,” Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer wrote in a note. “As such, we see a more stable 2019 with far fewer concerns for investors in the company.”
Dorsheimer also upgraded Tesla to buy from hold, and raised his price traget to $450 from $330, saying the Street underappreciates the company’s progress in the electric vehicle market.
The steady advance of global automakers into the electric car market has weighed on Tesla’s valuation over the past twelve months, with Morgan Stanley calling Tesla’s 80 percent U.S. electric vehicle market share in 2018 unsustainable. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said he expected the “next serious competition” to come “from a ‘clean sheet’ start-up with access to talent & capital focused on the fastest growing segments of pickup trucks & SUVs.”
Tesla has long been a far-from-stable story. While the stock gained as much as 4.2 percent on Monday, investors should brace for a choppy ride this year.
“The profitability picture for 2019 and the all-important Model 3 demand trajectory in Europe for Tesla looks encouraging for Musk & Co., but there is clearly heavy lifting ahead around Europe logistics/cost-cutting/driving incremental U.S. demand that will remain overhangs and thus make Tesla a ‘prove me’ story the next few quarters,” Wedbush’s Ives said.
Tuesday, February 5, 2019
All-New Mercedes CLA-Class To Take On Future Cadillac CT4
Mercedes-Benz recently debuted its all-new, second-generation CLA-Class – and the new German compact looks to be everything a small “four-door coupe” should be. Let’s take a closer look at what the world’s best-selling luxury carmaker has in store, since it will be one of the models that the upcoming Cadillac CT4 will be up against when it launches later this year.
Positioning
Following the wild success of the first-generation CLA-Class and the A-Class hatchback in Europe, Mercedes-Benz is taking a one-two punch to the highly-competitive C-segment this time around by fielding two models in the space: the new A-Class Sedan (and five-door Hatchback in Europe) as well as this CLA-Class “four-door coupe.” All models are mechanically related, as they ride on Mercedes’ new front-drive architecture, which will also derive the next-gen GLA-Class and GLB-Class crossover SUVs.
Though the four-door coupe moniker is a misnomer, the four-door coupe is an extremely successful strategy: by putting a sleeker body on the exact same chassis as a traditional sedan and giving it a different name, Mercedes is able to charge considerably more, thereby making a higher profit on each unit sold. The practice was practically invented by Mercedes-Benz with the original CLS-Class, which placed a four-door coupe body (there’s that misnomer again) on the frame of the E-Class Sedan. Other German automakers followed, including BMW with the 4 and 6 Series Gran Coupé models, as well as Audi with the A5 and A7 Sportback variants.
To that end, BMW is planning a competitor of its own to the new Mercedes CLA-Class, expected to be called 2 Series Grand Coupe. BMW fields a traditional C-segment sedan in China called the 1 Series, and that model could potentially make its way to the Americas in the future. Audi, meanwhile, has the A3 in the traditional C-segment space, and has been rumored to add an A3 Sportback to the next-gen A3 family.
Exterior
The 2020 Mercedes-Benz CLA is slightly larger than the first-generation model, while serving as a more expressive alternative to the new A-Class Sedan. In fact, the new CLA is longer, narrower, and lower than its predecessor, faros that help it be more aerodynamic than ever before. The main differentiator over the traditional A-Class Sedan is the rapidly-sloping, fastback-style roof.
Other than that, styling is in line with Mercedes’ current exterior design trends, which feature swooping lines and fewer creases. The design is not a love-it-or-hate-it affair since it’s not exactly offensive or ground-breaking, though it potentially borders on bland.
Powertrain
At launch, the second-generation 2020 CLA-Class will be offered with a single powertrain combination in the U.S. – a new, turbocharged 2.0-liter inline-four cylinder paired to a seven-speed dual-clutch automatic. The combo produces 221 horsepower and 258 pound-feet of torque in the model called CLA250. Front-wheel-drive is standard, while 4MATIC all-wheel-drive is optional.
Other powertrain variants are expected, including a range-topping CLA45 AMG with about 400 horsepower and 4MATIC AWD, and an in-between model called CLA35 AMG making in the vicinity of 300 horses.
Interior
The cabin of the new Mercedes CLA-Class is more spacious than that of the first-gen, with additional shoulder and elbow room for everyone. The trunk, however, is a bit smaller than the predecessor.
Inside, the new CLA-Class receives the Mercedes-Benz User eXperience (MBUX) infotainment system with a high-resolution, 10.25-inch touchscreen display. The AI-powered software adapts to individual users by learning their habits, making the driving experience more personal. Natural voice recognition technology lets passengers navigate the vehicle’s various functions by simply saying “Hey, Mercedes!”, following by their command. For added convenience, passengers can also use either the touchscreen or the touchpad found on the center console.
The 2020 Mercedes-Benz CLA-Class will begin arriving in showrooms later this year. Pricing information will be announced closer to the on-sale date. GM’s answer to the CLA-Class and A-Class will be the upcoming Cadillac CT4, which is expected to arrive by the end of the 2019 calendar year. The CT4, however, will have a more traditional body style similar to the A-Class Sedan, rather than this CLA-Class “four-door coupe”.
Positioning
Following the wild success of the first-generation CLA-Class and the A-Class hatchback in Europe, Mercedes-Benz is taking a one-two punch to the highly-competitive C-segment this time around by fielding two models in the space: the new A-Class Sedan (and five-door Hatchback in Europe) as well as this CLA-Class “four-door coupe.” All models are mechanically related, as they ride on Mercedes’ new front-drive architecture, which will also derive the next-gen GLA-Class and GLB-Class crossover SUVs.
Though the four-door coupe moniker is a misnomer, the four-door coupe is an extremely successful strategy: by putting a sleeker body on the exact same chassis as a traditional sedan and giving it a different name, Mercedes is able to charge considerably more, thereby making a higher profit on each unit sold. The practice was practically invented by Mercedes-Benz with the original CLS-Class, which placed a four-door coupe body (there’s that misnomer again) on the frame of the E-Class Sedan. Other German automakers followed, including BMW with the 4 and 6 Series Gran Coupé models, as well as Audi with the A5 and A7 Sportback variants.
To that end, BMW is planning a competitor of its own to the new Mercedes CLA-Class, expected to be called 2 Series Grand Coupe. BMW fields a traditional C-segment sedan in China called the 1 Series, and that model could potentially make its way to the Americas in the future. Audi, meanwhile, has the A3 in the traditional C-segment space, and has been rumored to add an A3 Sportback to the next-gen A3 family.
Exterior
The 2020 Mercedes-Benz CLA is slightly larger than the first-generation model, while serving as a more expressive alternative to the new A-Class Sedan. In fact, the new CLA is longer, narrower, and lower than its predecessor, faros that help it be more aerodynamic than ever before. The main differentiator over the traditional A-Class Sedan is the rapidly-sloping, fastback-style roof.
Other than that, styling is in line with Mercedes’ current exterior design trends, which feature swooping lines and fewer creases. The design is not a love-it-or-hate-it affair since it’s not exactly offensive or ground-breaking, though it potentially borders on bland.
Powertrain
At launch, the second-generation 2020 CLA-Class will be offered with a single powertrain combination in the U.S. – a new, turbocharged 2.0-liter inline-four cylinder paired to a seven-speed dual-clutch automatic. The combo produces 221 horsepower and 258 pound-feet of torque in the model called CLA250. Front-wheel-drive is standard, while 4MATIC all-wheel-drive is optional.
Other powertrain variants are expected, including a range-topping CLA45 AMG with about 400 horsepower and 4MATIC AWD, and an in-between model called CLA35 AMG making in the vicinity of 300 horses.
Interior
The cabin of the new Mercedes CLA-Class is more spacious than that of the first-gen, with additional shoulder and elbow room for everyone. The trunk, however, is a bit smaller than the predecessor.
Inside, the new CLA-Class receives the Mercedes-Benz User eXperience (MBUX) infotainment system with a high-resolution, 10.25-inch touchscreen display. The AI-powered software adapts to individual users by learning their habits, making the driving experience more personal. Natural voice recognition technology lets passengers navigate the vehicle’s various functions by simply saying “Hey, Mercedes!”, following by their command. For added convenience, passengers can also use either the touchscreen or the touchpad found on the center console.
The 2020 Mercedes-Benz CLA-Class will begin arriving in showrooms later this year. Pricing information will be announced closer to the on-sale date. GM’s answer to the CLA-Class and A-Class will be the upcoming Cadillac CT4, which is expected to arrive by the end of the 2019 calendar year. The CT4, however, will have a more traditional body style similar to the A-Class Sedan, rather than this CLA-Class “four-door coupe”.
Wednesday, January 23, 2019
Car COE prices up, others down in latest tender
SINGAPORE - Certificate of entitlement (COE) prices ended mostly higher on the back of sales whipped up by the recently concluded Singapore Motorshow.
COE premiums for cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp closed at $26,170, up from $25,920. COE prices for cars above 1,600cc or 130bhp finished at $33,989, up from $32,200.
Premiums for open COEs, which can be used for any vehicle type except motorcycles, but which end up used mostly for bigger cars, closed at $33,689, up from $32,909.
Commercial vehicle COE prices ended at $26,230, down from $27,002. Motorcycle premiums finished at $2,889, down from $3,610.
The Singapore Motorshow, which ended on Jan 13, drew 56,000 visitors, up from 55,000 who turned up for the 2018 show.
Industry players also point to increased demand for private-hire cars with the arrival of Indonesia's Gojek as another factor contributing to the COE rise.
An expected shrinkage in COE supply for the February-April quota period may have caused some panic buying.
COE premiums for cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp closed at $26,170, up from $25,920. COE prices for cars above 1,600cc or 130bhp finished at $33,989, up from $32,200.
Premiums for open COEs, which can be used for any vehicle type except motorcycles, but which end up used mostly for bigger cars, closed at $33,689, up from $32,909.
Commercial vehicle COE prices ended at $26,230, down from $27,002. Motorcycle premiums finished at $2,889, down from $3,610.
The Singapore Motorshow, which ended on Jan 13, drew 56,000 visitors, up from 55,000 who turned up for the 2018 show.
Industry players also point to increased demand for private-hire cars with the arrival of Indonesia's Gojek as another factor contributing to the COE rise.
An expected shrinkage in COE supply for the February-April quota period may have caused some panic buying.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
Investors Beware: “The World Economy Is Headed For A Recession In 2019 Unless Something Happens”
Global economic activity has been slowing down dramatically in recent months, and now the mainstream media is filled with dire warnings that a global recession is dead ahead in 2019. And without a doubt, things do not look good right now as economic numbers from all over the globe just get bleaker and bleaker. China’s trade numbers are imploding, Germany is “careening towards recession”, and the government shutdown in the United States is taking a huge toll on the U.S. economy. In past years, the mainstream media usually tried to put a positive spin on any bad numbers, but now their mood seems completely different. For example, in a Daily Mail article that was just posted we are told that “the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens”…
Global growth is slowing and the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens to give it renewed momentum.
The OECD’s (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) leading indicator fell to just 99.3 points in November, its lowest since October 2012, and down from a peak of 100.5 at the end of 2017.
It appears that we are at a critical level on that OECD index, because whenever that number has fallen under 99.3 a recession has almost always followed…
In the last 50 years, whenever the index has fallen below 99.3, there has almost always been a recession in the United States (1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008).
The one exception was the weakening of the index in 1998, when the United States continued to grow, despite the weakening global economy in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis.
Will we beat the odds this time?
I wouldn’t bet on it.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist is warning of a potential recession and telling us that we should “embrace it”. The following comes from CNN…
The S&P 500 will soon suffer a retest of the lows from Christmas Eve because of shrinking earnings estimates and mounting economic concerns, the investment bank warned in a Monday report titled “Don’t fear a potential recession; Embrace it.”
“Should the hard data deteriorate further, as we expect, we think the market will quickly return to pricing in a recession and rate cuts,” wrote Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist.
When the “too big to fail” banks are warning that a recession is coming, you know that it is late in the game.
Also, a top economist at Moody’s Analytics just told Maryland’s Budget and Taxation Committee that they should be getting prepared for the coming recession…
An economist has warned Maryland Senators that a recession is coming and that they should begin to prepare for it. The economist said that the indicators point to the recession happening in mid-2020, perhaps sooner.
Dan White, director of government consulting and fiscal policy research for Moody’s Analytics, told members of the Senate’s Budget and Taxation Committee that there are financial indicators of an upcoming recession according to the Baltimore Sun.
And the latest housing numbers seem to confirm that a recession may be coming sooner rather than later. In the month of December, U.S. home sales were down 11 percent…
The median US home price rose 1.2% to $289,800 in December, the slowest monthly pace since March 2012, when the housing market was just beginning to climb out of the hole left by the collapse. Meanwhile, sales dropped by 11%, the biggest drop for any one month since 2016, according to a report released by real estate company Redfin said. This follows a drop in the hottest markets, like San Jose, California, where prices dropped 7.3%.
As BBG explains, the housing market is softening after years of rapidly rising prices as the shortage in homes is beginning to wane. With interest rates on the rise, mortgages are becoming more expensive, which is cutting in to demand.
But just because a recession is coming does not mean that we should be afraid.
You may have noticed that I write about a lot of hard things on The Economic Collapse Blog and End Of The American Dream. But my wife and I are not negative people at all. We are not down, we are not depressed, and we are not on any pills. We are excited about the future and we believe that our greatest days are still to come.
However, we are definitely realists. We are greatly saddened by what is happening to this country, but we also know that it is not going to be avoided. So we want to be in a position to make it through what is ahead, and we want to fulfill the purpose for why we were put on this planet.
Anxiety, fear and panic are for those that get their meaning in life from material possessions, that don’t understand what is happening, and that are going to totally freak out when everything falls apart. For example, the following comes from an article by a member of the Council on Foreign Relations named Christian H. Cooper…
My most recent annual salary was over $700,000. I am a Truman National Security Fellow and a term member at the Council on Foreign Relations. My publisher has just released my latest book series on quantitative finance in worldwide distribution.
None of it feels like enough. I feel as though I am wired for a permanent state of fight or flight, waiting for the other shoe to drop, or the metaphorical week when I don’t eat. I’ve chosen not to have children, partly because—despite any success—I still don’t feel I have a safety net. I have a huge minimum checking account balance in mind before I would ever consider having children. If you knew me personally, you might get glimpses of stress, self-doubt, anxiety, and depression.
People like that are not going to be able to handle what is coming.
But if we understand the changes that are taking place and we have our priorities in order, we will be in a much better position to respond calmly to a world that is becoming more chaotic with each passing day.
Global growth is slowing and the world economy is headed for a recession in 2019 unless something happens to give it renewed momentum.
The OECD’s (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) leading indicator fell to just 99.3 points in November, its lowest since October 2012, and down from a peak of 100.5 at the end of 2017.
It appears that we are at a critical level on that OECD index, because whenever that number has fallen under 99.3 a recession has almost always followed…
In the last 50 years, whenever the index has fallen below 99.3, there has almost always been a recession in the United States (1970, 1974, 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001 and 2008).
The one exception was the weakening of the index in 1998, when the United States continued to grow, despite the weakening global economy in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis.
Will we beat the odds this time?
I wouldn’t bet on it.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s chief equity strategist is warning of a potential recession and telling us that we should “embrace it”. The following comes from CNN…
The S&P 500 will soon suffer a retest of the lows from Christmas Eve because of shrinking earnings estimates and mounting economic concerns, the investment bank warned in a Monday report titled “Don’t fear a potential recession; Embrace it.”
“Should the hard data deteriorate further, as we expect, we think the market will quickly return to pricing in a recession and rate cuts,” wrote Michael Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief US equity strategist.
When the “too big to fail” banks are warning that a recession is coming, you know that it is late in the game.
Also, a top economist at Moody’s Analytics just told Maryland’s Budget and Taxation Committee that they should be getting prepared for the coming recession…
An economist has warned Maryland Senators that a recession is coming and that they should begin to prepare for it. The economist said that the indicators point to the recession happening in mid-2020, perhaps sooner.
Dan White, director of government consulting and fiscal policy research for Moody’s Analytics, told members of the Senate’s Budget and Taxation Committee that there are financial indicators of an upcoming recession according to the Baltimore Sun.
And the latest housing numbers seem to confirm that a recession may be coming sooner rather than later. In the month of December, U.S. home sales were down 11 percent…
The median US home price rose 1.2% to $289,800 in December, the slowest monthly pace since March 2012, when the housing market was just beginning to climb out of the hole left by the collapse. Meanwhile, sales dropped by 11%, the biggest drop for any one month since 2016, according to a report released by real estate company Redfin said. This follows a drop in the hottest markets, like San Jose, California, where prices dropped 7.3%.
As BBG explains, the housing market is softening after years of rapidly rising prices as the shortage in homes is beginning to wane. With interest rates on the rise, mortgages are becoming more expensive, which is cutting in to demand.
But just because a recession is coming does not mean that we should be afraid.
You may have noticed that I write about a lot of hard things on The Economic Collapse Blog and End Of The American Dream. But my wife and I are not negative people at all. We are not down, we are not depressed, and we are not on any pills. We are excited about the future and we believe that our greatest days are still to come.
However, we are definitely realists. We are greatly saddened by what is happening to this country, but we also know that it is not going to be avoided. So we want to be in a position to make it through what is ahead, and we want to fulfill the purpose for why we were put on this planet.
Anxiety, fear and panic are for those that get their meaning in life from material possessions, that don’t understand what is happening, and that are going to totally freak out when everything falls apart. For example, the following comes from an article by a member of the Council on Foreign Relations named Christian H. Cooper…
My most recent annual salary was over $700,000. I am a Truman National Security Fellow and a term member at the Council on Foreign Relations. My publisher has just released my latest book series on quantitative finance in worldwide distribution.
None of it feels like enough. I feel as though I am wired for a permanent state of fight or flight, waiting for the other shoe to drop, or the metaphorical week when I don’t eat. I’ve chosen not to have children, partly because—despite any success—I still don’t feel I have a safety net. I have a huge minimum checking account balance in mind before I would ever consider having children. If you knew me personally, you might get glimpses of stress, self-doubt, anxiety, and depression.
People like that are not going to be able to handle what is coming.
But if we understand the changes that are taking place and we have our priorities in order, we will be in a much better position to respond calmly to a world that is becoming more chaotic with each passing day.
Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Global Debt Surpasses 244 Trillion Dollars As “Nearly Half The World Lives On Less Than $5.50 A Day”
The borrower is the servant of the lender, and one of the primary ways that the elite keep the rest of us subjugated is through the $244,000,000,000,000 mountain of global debt that has been accumulated. Every single day, the benefits of our labor are going to enrich somebody else. A portion of the taxes that are deducted from your paycheck is used to pay interest on government debt. A portion of the profits that your company makes probably goes to servicing some form of business debt. And most Americans are continuously making payments on their mortgages, their auto loans, their credit card balances and their student loan debts. But most people never stop to think about who is becoming exceedingly wealthy on the other end of these transactions. Needless to say, it isn’t the 46 percent of the global population that is living on less than $5.50 a day.
The world has never seen anything like this mountain of debt ever before, and one of the central themes of The Economic Collapse Blog is that all of this debt will ultimately destroy our society. According to the Institute of International Finance, the total amount of global debt is now “more than three times the size of the global economy”…
The world’s debt pile is hovering near a record at $244 trillion, which is more than three times the size of the global economy, according to an analysis by the Institute of International Finance.
The global debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 318 percent in the third quarter of last year, despite a stronger pace of economic growth, according to a report by the Washington-based IIF released on Tuesday.
But it isn’t as if all of this spending has lifted billions of people out of poverty. In fact, 46 percent of the population of the world is “living on less than $5.50 a day” according to the World Bank…
Over 1.9 billion people, or 26.2 percent of the world’s population, were living on less than $3.20 per day in 2015. Close to 46 percent of the world’s population was living on less than $5.50 a day.
Global inequality continues to grow worse with each passing year, and that is because the global financial system is literally designed to funnel as much wealth to the very top of the pyramid as possible.
Of course things could be very different. We don’t actually need to have a debt-based system which systematically makes the rich even richer.
One of the big secrets that nobody is supposed to talk about is the fact that governments don’t actually have to borrow money. For example, the U.S. government could start issuing debt-free “United States notes” tomorrow, and this actually happened for a very brief period of time under President John F. Kennedy in the 1960s just before he was assassinated. It is highly immoral for us to be borrowing trillions of dollars that we expect future generations to repay, and that is why I have been a huge proponent of shutting down the debt-based Federal Reserve system and ending the debt-based currency known as “Federal Reserve notes”.
But these days, only a small minority of the population seems to care. We are literally debt slaves, and most Americans have seemingly embraced their enslavement. I really like what Devvy Kidd had to say about this in her latest article…
The average American is a debt slave already at birth. And by the time he dies, his debt will have increased exponentially, thus passing on an even bigger debt and greater enslavement to the next generation.
This is a vicious circle that has gone on for just over 100 years. A very small elite has become incredibly wealthy and the masses have become enslaved by private and government debt.
For the majority of people, it will be impossible to extricate themselves from this massive debt stone around their neck. Instead they will add to the debt by taking on more debt.
Wake up!
At least the “yellow vests” in France are willing to take a stand against the systematic tyranny that is raging all around them. In America today, most people don’t really care about much of anything unless it somehow intrudes on the bubble of mindless entertainment that most Americans have constantly surrounded themselves with.
And guess who produces all of that mindless entertainment?
It is produced by giant media corporations that are owned by the same global elitists that control our giant mountain of debt.
The system of our enslavement is far more sophisticated than it was in previous eras of human history, but it is still deeply insidious.
There is one more thing that I would like to mention today. On many previous occasions, I have discussed how the elite have transformed Wall Street into the largest casino on the entire planet, and it is true that some people have made a lot of money in that casino.
But so many others have been deeply burned and have lost everything. Here is just one example…
I had quit day-trading back in November but was still using a swing trading system that damn near never lost (really), until I got completely run over last week. Literally every move I made was wrong, and I managed to completely wipe out my entire gambling account. I want to be clear, we’re not broke or anything near it (still get to claim millionaire status), but holy crap did I decimate my account something stupid.
So, I’m here to tell you that the scary stories you hear from elders who quit trading? They’re true. Trading is a losing game. It’s just gambling.
Most people who claim to be winners just ignore their losses and pretend everything is ok. To be sure, some people really can make a living at it, and good for them. But the odds are massively against you. The system is designed to take your money while you’re stressed, guessing, nervous, angry, depressed, or most of all – desperate.
The game is literally rigged against us, and we need to realize what we are up against.
Tinkering around with the current system is not going to fix anything. We need to ditch this current system and start again from scratch, but it will probably take a horrific collapse before most people start to understand this.
The world has never seen anything like this mountain of debt ever before, and one of the central themes of The Economic Collapse Blog is that all of this debt will ultimately destroy our society. According to the Institute of International Finance, the total amount of global debt is now “more than three times the size of the global economy”…
The world’s debt pile is hovering near a record at $244 trillion, which is more than three times the size of the global economy, according to an analysis by the Institute of International Finance.
The global debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 318 percent in the third quarter of last year, despite a stronger pace of economic growth, according to a report by the Washington-based IIF released on Tuesday.
But it isn’t as if all of this spending has lifted billions of people out of poverty. In fact, 46 percent of the population of the world is “living on less than $5.50 a day” according to the World Bank…
Over 1.9 billion people, or 26.2 percent of the world’s population, were living on less than $3.20 per day in 2015. Close to 46 percent of the world’s population was living on less than $5.50 a day.
Global inequality continues to grow worse with each passing year, and that is because the global financial system is literally designed to funnel as much wealth to the very top of the pyramid as possible.
Of course things could be very different. We don’t actually need to have a debt-based system which systematically makes the rich even richer.
One of the big secrets that nobody is supposed to talk about is the fact that governments don’t actually have to borrow money. For example, the U.S. government could start issuing debt-free “United States notes” tomorrow, and this actually happened for a very brief period of time under President John F. Kennedy in the 1960s just before he was assassinated. It is highly immoral for us to be borrowing trillions of dollars that we expect future generations to repay, and that is why I have been a huge proponent of shutting down the debt-based Federal Reserve system and ending the debt-based currency known as “Federal Reserve notes”.
But these days, only a small minority of the population seems to care. We are literally debt slaves, and most Americans have seemingly embraced their enslavement. I really like what Devvy Kidd had to say about this in her latest article…
The average American is a debt slave already at birth. And by the time he dies, his debt will have increased exponentially, thus passing on an even bigger debt and greater enslavement to the next generation.
This is a vicious circle that has gone on for just over 100 years. A very small elite has become incredibly wealthy and the masses have become enslaved by private and government debt.
For the majority of people, it will be impossible to extricate themselves from this massive debt stone around their neck. Instead they will add to the debt by taking on more debt.
Wake up!
At least the “yellow vests” in France are willing to take a stand against the systematic tyranny that is raging all around them. In America today, most people don’t really care about much of anything unless it somehow intrudes on the bubble of mindless entertainment that most Americans have constantly surrounded themselves with.
And guess who produces all of that mindless entertainment?
It is produced by giant media corporations that are owned by the same global elitists that control our giant mountain of debt.
The system of our enslavement is far more sophisticated than it was in previous eras of human history, but it is still deeply insidious.
There is one more thing that I would like to mention today. On many previous occasions, I have discussed how the elite have transformed Wall Street into the largest casino on the entire planet, and it is true that some people have made a lot of money in that casino.
But so many others have been deeply burned and have lost everything. Here is just one example…
I had quit day-trading back in November but was still using a swing trading system that damn near never lost (really), until I got completely run over last week. Literally every move I made was wrong, and I managed to completely wipe out my entire gambling account. I want to be clear, we’re not broke or anything near it (still get to claim millionaire status), but holy crap did I decimate my account something stupid.
So, I’m here to tell you that the scary stories you hear from elders who quit trading? They’re true. Trading is a losing game. It’s just gambling.
Most people who claim to be winners just ignore their losses and pretend everything is ok. To be sure, some people really can make a living at it, and good for them. But the odds are massively against you. The system is designed to take your money while you’re stressed, guessing, nervous, angry, depressed, or most of all – desperate.
The game is literally rigged against us, and we need to realize what we are up against.
Tinkering around with the current system is not going to fix anything. We need to ditch this current system and start again from scratch, but it will probably take a horrific collapse before most people start to understand this.
Monday, January 14, 2019
These New Numbers Are Telling Us That The Global Economic Slowdown Is Far More Advanced Than We Thought
We continue to get more confirmation that the global economy is slowing down substantially. On Monday, it was China’s turn to surprise analysts, and the numbers that they just released are absolutely stunning. When Chinese imports and exports are both expanding, that is a clear sign that the global economy is running on all cylinders, but when both of them are contracting that is an indication that huge trouble is ahead. And the experts were certainly anticipating substantial increases in both categories in December, but instead there were huge declines. There is no possible way to spin these numbers to make them look good…
Data from China showed imports fell 7.6 percent year-on-year in December while analysts had predicted a 5-percent rise. Exports dropped 4.4 percent, confounding expectations for a 3-percent gain.
China now accounts for more total global trade than the United States does, and the fact that the numbers for the global economy’s number one trade hub are falling this dramatically is a major warning sign.
And of course it isn’t just China that is experiencing trouble. In fact, we just witnessed the worst industrial output numbers in Europe “in nearly three years”…
Adding to the gloom were weak industrial output numbers from the euro zone, which showed the largest fall in nearly three years.
Softening demand has been felt around the world, with sales of goods ranging from iPhones to automobiles slowing, prompting profit warnings from Apple among others.
If we were headed for a major global recession, these are exactly the types of news stories that we would expect to see.
We also continue to get more indications that the U.S. economy is slowing down significantly. For example, sales of new homes in the U.S. were down 19 percent in November and 18 percent in December…
Sales of newly built homes fell 18 percent in December compared with December of 2017, according to data compiled by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a California-based housing research and analytics firm.
Due to the partial government shutdown, official government figures on home sales for November and December have not been released.
Sales were also down a steep 19 percent annually in November, according to JBRC’s analysts.
Those are horrific numbers, and they are very reminiscent of what we witnessed back in 2008.
And we also just learned that employers are cutting back on hiring new college grads for the first time in eight years…
A new report from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) shows that for the first time in eight years, managers are pulling back the reins on hiring college grads, with a projected 1.3 percent decrease from last year. Additionally, a survey from Monster.com found that of 350 college students polled, 75 percent don’t have a job lined up yet.
I feel really bad for those that are getting ready to graduate from college, because I know what it is like to graduate in the middle of an economic downturn. At the time, many of my friends took whatever jobs they possibly could, and some of them never really got on the right track after that.
But the economic environment that is ahead will be much worse than any of the minor recessions that the U.S. has experienced in the past, and that means things are going to be extremely tough for our college graduates. And the total amount of student loan debt in this country has roughly tripled over the last decade, and so a lot of these young people are going to enter the real world with crippling amounts of debt but without the good jobs that they were promised would be there upon graduation.
As economic conditions have begun to deteriorate, I have had more people begin to ask me about what they can do to get prepared for what is coming. And I always start off by telling them the exact same thing. Today, 78 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, but when an economic downturn strikes that is precisely what you do not want to be doing.
Some people that I hear from insist that there is no possible way that they can put together an emergency fund because they are already spending everything that they are bringing in.
And yes, it is true that there are some people out there that are so financially stretched that they literally do not have a single penny to spare even though they are being extremely frugal, but the majority of us definitely have areas where we can cut back.
I realize that “cutting back” does not sound fun. But not being able to pay your mortgage when things get really bad will be a whole lot less fun.
Right now people should be focusing on reducing expenses and trying to make some extra money. Use whatever time we have left before things get really bad to put yourself into a better financial position. If you have at least a little bit of money to fall back on, it will make your life much less stressful in the long run.
In addition, anything that you can do to become more independent of the system is a good thing. On a very basic level, learning to grow a garden can end up saving you a ton of money. I was just at the grocery store earlier today, and food is getting really expensive. When the Federal Reserve says that we are in a “low inflation” environment, I always wonder what world they are living on.
When I got up to the register today, I almost felt like they were going to ask me what organ I wanted to donate in order to pay for my groceries. Unfortunately, the price of food right now is actually quite low compared to what it is going to be in the days ahead.
So I guess I shouldn’t complain too much.
I think that I have just been in a foul mood all day ever since I came across Gillette’s new “toxic masculinity” ad. I will have quite a bit to say about that ad later this evening on EndOfTheAmericanDream.com.
Ladies and gentlemen, 2019 is off to quite a rough start, and things are likely to get a whole lot rougher.
As always, let us hope for the best, but let us also get prepared for the worst.
Data from China showed imports fell 7.6 percent year-on-year in December while analysts had predicted a 5-percent rise. Exports dropped 4.4 percent, confounding expectations for a 3-percent gain.
China now accounts for more total global trade than the United States does, and the fact that the numbers for the global economy’s number one trade hub are falling this dramatically is a major warning sign.
And of course it isn’t just China that is experiencing trouble. In fact, we just witnessed the worst industrial output numbers in Europe “in nearly three years”…
Adding to the gloom were weak industrial output numbers from the euro zone, which showed the largest fall in nearly three years.
Softening demand has been felt around the world, with sales of goods ranging from iPhones to automobiles slowing, prompting profit warnings from Apple among others.
If we were headed for a major global recession, these are exactly the types of news stories that we would expect to see.
We also continue to get more indications that the U.S. economy is slowing down significantly. For example, sales of new homes in the U.S. were down 19 percent in November and 18 percent in December…
Sales of newly built homes fell 18 percent in December compared with December of 2017, according to data compiled by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, a California-based housing research and analytics firm.
Due to the partial government shutdown, official government figures on home sales for November and December have not been released.
Sales were also down a steep 19 percent annually in November, according to JBRC’s analysts.
Those are horrific numbers, and they are very reminiscent of what we witnessed back in 2008.
And we also just learned that employers are cutting back on hiring new college grads for the first time in eight years…
A new report from the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) shows that for the first time in eight years, managers are pulling back the reins on hiring college grads, with a projected 1.3 percent decrease from last year. Additionally, a survey from Monster.com found that of 350 college students polled, 75 percent don’t have a job lined up yet.
I feel really bad for those that are getting ready to graduate from college, because I know what it is like to graduate in the middle of an economic downturn. At the time, many of my friends took whatever jobs they possibly could, and some of them never really got on the right track after that.
But the economic environment that is ahead will be much worse than any of the minor recessions that the U.S. has experienced in the past, and that means things are going to be extremely tough for our college graduates. And the total amount of student loan debt in this country has roughly tripled over the last decade, and so a lot of these young people are going to enter the real world with crippling amounts of debt but without the good jobs that they were promised would be there upon graduation.
As economic conditions have begun to deteriorate, I have had more people begin to ask me about what they can do to get prepared for what is coming. And I always start off by telling them the exact same thing. Today, 78 percent of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, but when an economic downturn strikes that is precisely what you do not want to be doing.
Some people that I hear from insist that there is no possible way that they can put together an emergency fund because they are already spending everything that they are bringing in.
And yes, it is true that there are some people out there that are so financially stretched that they literally do not have a single penny to spare even though they are being extremely frugal, but the majority of us definitely have areas where we can cut back.
I realize that “cutting back” does not sound fun. But not being able to pay your mortgage when things get really bad will be a whole lot less fun.
Right now people should be focusing on reducing expenses and trying to make some extra money. Use whatever time we have left before things get really bad to put yourself into a better financial position. If you have at least a little bit of money to fall back on, it will make your life much less stressful in the long run.
In addition, anything that you can do to become more independent of the system is a good thing. On a very basic level, learning to grow a garden can end up saving you a ton of money. I was just at the grocery store earlier today, and food is getting really expensive. When the Federal Reserve says that we are in a “low inflation” environment, I always wonder what world they are living on.
When I got up to the register today, I almost felt like they were going to ask me what organ I wanted to donate in order to pay for my groceries. Unfortunately, the price of food right now is actually quite low compared to what it is going to be in the days ahead.
So I guess I shouldn’t complain too much.
I think that I have just been in a foul mood all day ever since I came across Gillette’s new “toxic masculinity” ad. I will have quite a bit to say about that ad later this evening on EndOfTheAmericanDream.com.
Ladies and gentlemen, 2019 is off to quite a rough start, and things are likely to get a whole lot rougher.
As always, let us hope for the best, but let us also get prepared for the worst.
Friday, January 11, 2019
Here’s How Mercedes Is Differentiating the New CLA from the A-class Sedan
With the debut of the second-generation Mercedes-Benz CLA at the CES technology show in Las Vegas earlier this week, one of the largest questions in our minds was, "What's the point of the new CLA now that the A-class sedan exists?" Both cars are betrunked four-door compacts that ride on the same platform, use the same powertrain, and have nearly identical interiors with many of the same options and features. Yes, the CLA is marketed as a "four-door coupe" with a swoopier roofline and more aggressive styling, but is it really different enough from the A-class to warrant its existence?
There are a few differences that are immediate by comparing the spec sheets. At 184.6 inches long and 72.0 inches wide, the new CLA is 5.5 inches longer and 1.3 inches wider than the A-class. It's also slightly shorter in height thanks to that sloping roofline. The CLA comes only in CLA250 form, with a 221-hp turbocharged 2.0-liter four-cylinder, while the A-class is available only in 188-hp A220 form. The CLA also receives different suspension, steering, and stability-control tuning, But to many—including some at the C/D office—the CLA and A-class are still too similar. So to really understand Mercedes' thinking behind the two cars, we sat down with Gorden Wagener, Daimler's chief of design, to gain some insight into the CLA's design process.
We asked Wagener about his number-one goal in designing the new CLA, and his answer stemmed from the previous car. He says that the first-gen CLA was "a true design icon car," one that is very important from a brand perspective as he says it helped turned Mercedes from "a traditional luxury company to a modern luxury company." Around 80 percent of CLA customers were new to the brand, with a much younger average age than buyers of any other Mercedes model. He went on to say that the first CLA "looked like a design sketch," with exaggerated proportions, big wheels, and a high beltline. With the new platform and additional length, Mercedes was able to keep the expressiveness of the CLA and turn everything up a few notches for the new generation. Wagener says his team adhered to Benz's new "sensual purity" design philosophy, sculpting the car using only light and shadow instead of the myriad lines and creases of the old car. "It's more like a human body," he said of the new CLA's surfacing, "so I think it's a true embodiment of sexiness, in a human way—what we humans think is attractive. A car like the CLA must be sexy, and this car is."
We then asked how he went about differentiating the CLA and A-class sedan so the two have their own distinct personalities, and Wagener replied, "The A-class sedan is a more mainstream car, so it's more rational in terms of functionality. The CLA is much more irrational." He points out that the two cars are very different when you see them next to each other, and after seeing the new CLA in person, we're inclined to agree.
"It's tighter, it's lower, it's even more expressive in the language and the graphics. It's like when you compare an E-class and a CLS," said Wagener. "The new CLA is like a four-door sports car, even more than the current one, with some DNA from the CLS, but it's even more like the new AMG GT 4-Door."
When it comes to the interior, Wagener said that "the amount of luxury, the quality, the content is two classes up when compared to the competition," and that the A-class's interior didn't need to change much to still fit with the CLA's character. "I think this is a big achievement that we were able to put so much content in there and wrap it in such a nice way."
We then asked if there is a specific design feature on the CLA that is his favorite thing about the car, knowing that is nearly impossible for a designer to answer. Wagener said: "For me it's always the whole thing, and which role it plays on the chessboard of our entire portfolio. My goal as head of design is to make Mercedes the most beloved company, and I think the CLA and A-class sedan will help in that way, because they are bringing a new generation to the brand—and as we have the best loyalty with our brand, they stay with us and upgrade, so the CLA is a true brand shaper." He ended by saying, "And besides, I am happy as a designer that we can do such design-related cars, because the CLA is just pure design." With more than 750,000 CLAs sold since its inception in 2013, sometimes it pays to be irrational.
Finally, we asked about the possibility of the not-for-the-U.S. CLA Shooting Brake getting a second generation. Wagener said that the current Shooting Brake model is very successful in Europe and China. He adds that, even more than the regular CLA, "it's a very designer's car, a very irrational car. And it offers a lot of space even if it doesn't look like it would." Ending with a smile, he says: "So good reasons to continue that, let's see."
Mercedes Singapore News
There are a few differences that are immediate by comparing the spec sheets. At 184.6 inches long and 72.0 inches wide, the new CLA is 5.5 inches longer and 1.3 inches wider than the A-class. It's also slightly shorter in height thanks to that sloping roofline. The CLA comes only in CLA250 form, with a 221-hp turbocharged 2.0-liter four-cylinder, while the A-class is available only in 188-hp A220 form. The CLA also receives different suspension, steering, and stability-control tuning, But to many—including some at the C/D office—the CLA and A-class are still too similar. So to really understand Mercedes' thinking behind the two cars, we sat down with Gorden Wagener, Daimler's chief of design, to gain some insight into the CLA's design process.
We asked Wagener about his number-one goal in designing the new CLA, and his answer stemmed from the previous car. He says that the first-gen CLA was "a true design icon car," one that is very important from a brand perspective as he says it helped turned Mercedes from "a traditional luxury company to a modern luxury company." Around 80 percent of CLA customers were new to the brand, with a much younger average age than buyers of any other Mercedes model. He went on to say that the first CLA "looked like a design sketch," with exaggerated proportions, big wheels, and a high beltline. With the new platform and additional length, Mercedes was able to keep the expressiveness of the CLA and turn everything up a few notches for the new generation. Wagener says his team adhered to Benz's new "sensual purity" design philosophy, sculpting the car using only light and shadow instead of the myriad lines and creases of the old car. "It's more like a human body," he said of the new CLA's surfacing, "so I think it's a true embodiment of sexiness, in a human way—what we humans think is attractive. A car like the CLA must be sexy, and this car is."
We then asked how he went about differentiating the CLA and A-class sedan so the two have their own distinct personalities, and Wagener replied, "The A-class sedan is a more mainstream car, so it's more rational in terms of functionality. The CLA is much more irrational." He points out that the two cars are very different when you see them next to each other, and after seeing the new CLA in person, we're inclined to agree.
"It's tighter, it's lower, it's even more expressive in the language and the graphics. It's like when you compare an E-class and a CLS," said Wagener. "The new CLA is like a four-door sports car, even more than the current one, with some DNA from the CLS, but it's even more like the new AMG GT 4-Door."
When it comes to the interior, Wagener said that "the amount of luxury, the quality, the content is two classes up when compared to the competition," and that the A-class's interior didn't need to change much to still fit with the CLA's character. "I think this is a big achievement that we were able to put so much content in there and wrap it in such a nice way."
We then asked if there is a specific design feature on the CLA that is his favorite thing about the car, knowing that is nearly impossible for a designer to answer. Wagener said: "For me it's always the whole thing, and which role it plays on the chessboard of our entire portfolio. My goal as head of design is to make Mercedes the most beloved company, and I think the CLA and A-class sedan will help in that way, because they are bringing a new generation to the brand—and as we have the best loyalty with our brand, they stay with us and upgrade, so the CLA is a true brand shaper." He ended by saying, "And besides, I am happy as a designer that we can do such design-related cars, because the CLA is just pure design." With more than 750,000 CLAs sold since its inception in 2013, sometimes it pays to be irrational.
Finally, we asked about the possibility of the not-for-the-U.S. CLA Shooting Brake getting a second generation. Wagener said that the current Shooting Brake model is very successful in Europe and China. He adds that, even more than the regular CLA, "it's a very designer's car, a very irrational car. And it offers a lot of space even if it doesn't look like it would." Ending with a smile, he says: "So good reasons to continue that, let's see."
Mercedes Singapore News
Thursday, January 3, 2019
A Surprise Announcement Has Just Unleashed Another Wave Of Panic On Wall Street
Well, that sure didn’t take long. Many had been hoping that 2019 would be a calmer year for Wall Street, but so far that has not materialized. In fact, a surprise announcement by Apple has just sparked another wave of panic selling on Wall Street. In a letter to shareholders, Apple CEO Tim Cook admitted that first quarter revenue is going to be way, way below expectations. That immediately set off “flash crashes” all over the globe as investors reacted to this unexpected news. According to Cook, the primary reason for the coming “revenue shortfall” is a slowing economy in China…
Apple said it sees first-quarter revenue of $84 billion vs. a previous guidance of a range of $89 billion and $93 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $91.3 billion for the period, according to the consensus estimate from FactSet. Apple blamed most of the revenue shortfall for struggling business in China. But the company also said that upgrades by customers in other countries were “not as strong as we thought they would be.”
Once this letter was released, many investors rushed to dump as much Apple stock as they could, and trading in the stock was temporarily halted…
After being halted temporarily, Apple shares resumed trading at 4:50 p.m. ET, quickly falling over 8 percent to $145.12. The plunging shares wiped out more than $50 billion in the company’s market value, according to Bloomberg data. Apple, which was trading around $146 in after-hours trading is now down more than 37 percent from its Oct. 3 high and has fallen mightily since becoming the first U.S. company to reach a $1 trillion market cap in August.
And many investors generally assume that pretty much any bad news for Apple is bad news for the tech sector as a whole, and so just about every big tech stock was being pummeled in the aftermath of this surprise announcement. The following numbers come from Business Insider…
Amazon (AMZN) down 3%
Microsoft (MSFT) down 2%
Facebook (FB) down 1.5%
Alphabet (GOOG) down nearly 1%
Intel (INTC) down 2%
Advanced Micro Devices down nearly 3%
NVIDIA down nearly 2.5%
Qualcomm down 2%
Alibaba down 1.7%
As I warned just yesterday, it looks like 2019 is going to be a very, very challenging year.
At this point the mood of the nation has turned downright gloomy. Economic activity is slowing down all around the globe, the current government shutdown looks like it could last for a very long time, the endless investigations in Washington threaten to derail the Trump presidency, our trade war with China is becoming more painful with each passing week, and even many former optimists are openly admitting that the outlook for Wall Street looks very grim. For example, just check out what venture capitalist Fred Wilson is saying…
Like many of his peers in the Valley, legendary New York VC Fred Wilson – the founder of Union Square Ventures – is typically a dewy eyed optimist (just take a look at Union Ventures’ many flailing crypto investments). But in a surprising twist, a list of Wilson’s market calls for 2019 is so gloomy, it reads as if it were ghostwritten by SocGen’s Albert Edwards.
According to Wilson, the S&P 500 will visit 2,000 (a roughly 500 point – 25% – drop from current levels) some time during 2019 as the bottom falls out of the global economy. President Trump will agree to resign after being impeached by the House following the publication of the Mueller report. And the slate of highly anticipated tech IPOs (Uber, Lyft, Airbnb etc.) will fall flat. In other words, 2019 will be a “doozy”, as Wilson describes it.
The new session of Congress begins at noon on Thursday, and Nancy Pelosi will once again be the Speaker of the House. If something suddenly happened to President Trump and Vice-President Pence, she would become the president of the United States.
I don’t know about you, but just the thought of that chills me to the bone.
Now that the Democrats control the House, they are going to investigate the living daylights out of Trump, and it is likely to be a very, very tough year for him.
Many on the left are entirely convinced that Trump will be out of the White House by the end of 2019. Perhaps they will be successful in that mission, but instead of fixing things that would just unleash a whole lot more chaos.
As this year rolls along, the bickering and fighting in Washington is going to continue to intensify, but meanwhile very little is going to get done. With the Democrats in control of the House, the Republicans in control of the Senate, and Trump in control of the White House we have a recipe for gridlock that is pretty much unprecedented in modern American history.
What that means is that if things go really, really bad, we shouldn’t really expect any solutions to come out of Washington. We desperately need real change, but the voters just keep on sending the same old faces back to D.C. and they just keep on pushing the same old tired policies.
It is funny how I often drift into talking about politics, but the truth is that economics and politics are inseparable. And it is undeniable that what is going on in D.C. is going to have a dramatic impact on the U.S. economy throughout 2019.
As I write this, the numbers coming from Wall Street just keep getting worse and worse. It looks like it is going to be a really tough day, and without a doubt it looks like it is going to be a really tough year.
Apple said it sees first-quarter revenue of $84 billion vs. a previous guidance of a range of $89 billion and $93 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $91.3 billion for the period, according to the consensus estimate from FactSet. Apple blamed most of the revenue shortfall for struggling business in China. But the company also said that upgrades by customers in other countries were “not as strong as we thought they would be.”
Once this letter was released, many investors rushed to dump as much Apple stock as they could, and trading in the stock was temporarily halted…
After being halted temporarily, Apple shares resumed trading at 4:50 p.m. ET, quickly falling over 8 percent to $145.12. The plunging shares wiped out more than $50 billion in the company’s market value, according to Bloomberg data. Apple, which was trading around $146 in after-hours trading is now down more than 37 percent from its Oct. 3 high and has fallen mightily since becoming the first U.S. company to reach a $1 trillion market cap in August.
And many investors generally assume that pretty much any bad news for Apple is bad news for the tech sector as a whole, and so just about every big tech stock was being pummeled in the aftermath of this surprise announcement. The following numbers come from Business Insider…
Amazon (AMZN) down 3%
Microsoft (MSFT) down 2%
Facebook (FB) down 1.5%
Alphabet (GOOG) down nearly 1%
Intel (INTC) down 2%
Advanced Micro Devices down nearly 3%
NVIDIA down nearly 2.5%
Qualcomm down 2%
Alibaba down 1.7%
As I warned just yesterday, it looks like 2019 is going to be a very, very challenging year.
At this point the mood of the nation has turned downright gloomy. Economic activity is slowing down all around the globe, the current government shutdown looks like it could last for a very long time, the endless investigations in Washington threaten to derail the Trump presidency, our trade war with China is becoming more painful with each passing week, and even many former optimists are openly admitting that the outlook for Wall Street looks very grim. For example, just check out what venture capitalist Fred Wilson is saying…
Like many of his peers in the Valley, legendary New York VC Fred Wilson – the founder of Union Square Ventures – is typically a dewy eyed optimist (just take a look at Union Ventures’ many flailing crypto investments). But in a surprising twist, a list of Wilson’s market calls for 2019 is so gloomy, it reads as if it were ghostwritten by SocGen’s Albert Edwards.
According to Wilson, the S&P 500 will visit 2,000 (a roughly 500 point – 25% – drop from current levels) some time during 2019 as the bottom falls out of the global economy. President Trump will agree to resign after being impeached by the House following the publication of the Mueller report. And the slate of highly anticipated tech IPOs (Uber, Lyft, Airbnb etc.) will fall flat. In other words, 2019 will be a “doozy”, as Wilson describes it.
The new session of Congress begins at noon on Thursday, and Nancy Pelosi will once again be the Speaker of the House. If something suddenly happened to President Trump and Vice-President Pence, she would become the president of the United States.
I don’t know about you, but just the thought of that chills me to the bone.
Now that the Democrats control the House, they are going to investigate the living daylights out of Trump, and it is likely to be a very, very tough year for him.
Many on the left are entirely convinced that Trump will be out of the White House by the end of 2019. Perhaps they will be successful in that mission, but instead of fixing things that would just unleash a whole lot more chaos.
As this year rolls along, the bickering and fighting in Washington is going to continue to intensify, but meanwhile very little is going to get done. With the Democrats in control of the House, the Republicans in control of the Senate, and Trump in control of the White House we have a recipe for gridlock that is pretty much unprecedented in modern American history.
What that means is that if things go really, really bad, we shouldn’t really expect any solutions to come out of Washington. We desperately need real change, but the voters just keep on sending the same old faces back to D.C. and they just keep on pushing the same old tired policies.
It is funny how I often drift into talking about politics, but the truth is that economics and politics are inseparable. And it is undeniable that what is going on in D.C. is going to have a dramatic impact on the U.S. economy throughout 2019.
As I write this, the numbers coming from Wall Street just keep getting worse and worse. It looks like it is going to be a really tough day, and without a doubt it looks like it is going to be a really tough year.
Tuesday, January 1, 2019
2018 Was The Worst Year For The Stock Market Since The Financial Crisis Of 2008
Now that the year is finally over, we can officially say that 2018 was the worst year for stocks in an entire decade. Not since the last financial crisis have we had a year like this, and many believe that 2019 will be even worse. And of course the truth is that stocks are still tremendously overvalued. Stock valuation ratios always return to their long-term averages eventually, and if the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged another 8,000 points from the current level that would begin to get us into that neighborhood. Unfortunately, the system is so highly leveraged that it will not be able to handle a price decline of that magnitude. The relatively modest drops that we have seen already have caused a tremendous amount of chaos on Wall Street, and a full-blown meltdown would quickly result in a nightmare scenario potentially even worse than what we experienced in 2008.
For investors that had become accustomed to large gains year after year, 2018 was a brutal wake up call. The following comes from Fox Business…
2018 may be remembered as the year the Grinch stole your retirement or stock investment account.
December was the worst month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 since 1931, as tracked by our partners at Dow Jones Market Data Group. The S&P 500, the broadest measure of stocks, lost 9 percent and the Dow over 8.5 percent.
For the year, stocks turned in the worst performance since 2008.
According to the bulls, this wasn’t supposed to happen. In the middle of the year, they were projecting that a “booming” U.S. economy would continue to drive stock prices higher, but instead we just witnessed the worst three month stretch for stocks since the 4th quarter of 2008, and the month of December was the most painful of all…
December was a particularly dreadful month: The S&P 500 was down 9% and the Dow was down 8.7% — the worst December since 1931. In one seven-day stretch, the Dow fell by 350 points or more six times. This year’s Christmas Eve was the worst ever for the index.
The S&P 500 was up or down more than 1% nine times in December alone, compared to eight times in all of 2017. It moved that much 64 times during the year.
Not even in 2008 did we have a December like this. This was the second worst December for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ever, and you know that things are getting bad when you have to go all the way back to the Great Depression of the 1930s to find a time when stock prices were deteriorating more rapidly.
The amount of stock market wealth that has already been wiped out is absolutely staggering. For example, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth plummeted by 20 billion dollars in 2018…
American billionaires saw the biggest loss this year, collectively dropping $76 billion, largely because of December’s market rout. Mark Zuckerberg saw the sharpest drop in 2018 as Facebook Inc. veered from crisis to crisis. His net worth fell nearly $20 billion, leaving the 34-year-old with a $53 billion fortune.
And this was not just a U.S. phenomenon. Virtually every major stock market around the world was hit extremely hard, and a total of nearly 12 trillion dollars in global stock market wealth was wiped out over the course of the year.
The only time when more stock market wealth was wiped out in a single year was in 2008.
Are you starting to understand the magnitude of the crisis that has now erupted?
Of course the mainstream media continues to insist that this is just a temporary thing, and that markets will begin surging again soon as investors start scooping up stocks at “bargain prices”. For example, just check out this excerpt from a CNBC article that was posted on Monday…
John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, said these declines are “setting the stage for upward surprises in 2019.”
“With what we believe to be almost all but the kitchen sink priced into current valuations, we see opportunity for multiples to return to levels seen at the end of the third quarter … with multiple expansions resulting in a global equity rebound in the coming year,” Stoltzfus wrote in a note.
It sure would be nice if the optimists are correct. Even for those that are relatively poor, the truth is that we live very comfortably in the United States today. The vast majority of us really have nothing to complain about, because we are enjoying a standard of living that is substantially higher than almost everyone else in the world.
Of course we don’t actually deserve this standard of living, but most Americans don’t want to hear that. We consume far more than we produce, and only by going into increasingly absurd amounts of debt are we able to keep the game going.
It is easy to say that this bubble will inevitably burst, but it will be a very sad day when it does.
Those that gleefully look forward to the coming collapse of our financial system do not really understand what we will be facing. It won’t be like 2008 when the authorities were able to patch things together and fairly rapidly restore our standard of living. When this thing finally shatters, nobody is going to be able to put the pieces back together like they were before ever again.
This is a very dark time. As I have stressed repeatedly, the elements for a “perfect storm” have been rapidly coming together, and 2019 is going to look a whole lot different than 2018 did.
For investors that had become accustomed to large gains year after year, 2018 was a brutal wake up call. The following comes from Fox Business…
2018 may be remembered as the year the Grinch stole your retirement or stock investment account.
December was the worst month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 since 1931, as tracked by our partners at Dow Jones Market Data Group. The S&P 500, the broadest measure of stocks, lost 9 percent and the Dow over 8.5 percent.
For the year, stocks turned in the worst performance since 2008.
According to the bulls, this wasn’t supposed to happen. In the middle of the year, they were projecting that a “booming” U.S. economy would continue to drive stock prices higher, but instead we just witnessed the worst three month stretch for stocks since the 4th quarter of 2008, and the month of December was the most painful of all…
December was a particularly dreadful month: The S&P 500 was down 9% and the Dow was down 8.7% — the worst December since 1931. In one seven-day stretch, the Dow fell by 350 points or more six times. This year’s Christmas Eve was the worst ever for the index.
The S&P 500 was up or down more than 1% nine times in December alone, compared to eight times in all of 2017. It moved that much 64 times during the year.
Not even in 2008 did we have a December like this. This was the second worst December for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ever, and you know that things are getting bad when you have to go all the way back to the Great Depression of the 1930s to find a time when stock prices were deteriorating more rapidly.
The amount of stock market wealth that has already been wiped out is absolutely staggering. For example, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s net worth plummeted by 20 billion dollars in 2018…
American billionaires saw the biggest loss this year, collectively dropping $76 billion, largely because of December’s market rout. Mark Zuckerberg saw the sharpest drop in 2018 as Facebook Inc. veered from crisis to crisis. His net worth fell nearly $20 billion, leaving the 34-year-old with a $53 billion fortune.
And this was not just a U.S. phenomenon. Virtually every major stock market around the world was hit extremely hard, and a total of nearly 12 trillion dollars in global stock market wealth was wiped out over the course of the year.
The only time when more stock market wealth was wiped out in a single year was in 2008.
Are you starting to understand the magnitude of the crisis that has now erupted?
Of course the mainstream media continues to insist that this is just a temporary thing, and that markets will begin surging again soon as investors start scooping up stocks at “bargain prices”. For example, just check out this excerpt from a CNBC article that was posted on Monday…
John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer Asset Management, said these declines are “setting the stage for upward surprises in 2019.”
“With what we believe to be almost all but the kitchen sink priced into current valuations, we see opportunity for multiples to return to levels seen at the end of the third quarter … with multiple expansions resulting in a global equity rebound in the coming year,” Stoltzfus wrote in a note.
It sure would be nice if the optimists are correct. Even for those that are relatively poor, the truth is that we live very comfortably in the United States today. The vast majority of us really have nothing to complain about, because we are enjoying a standard of living that is substantially higher than almost everyone else in the world.
Of course we don’t actually deserve this standard of living, but most Americans don’t want to hear that. We consume far more than we produce, and only by going into increasingly absurd amounts of debt are we able to keep the game going.
It is easy to say that this bubble will inevitably burst, but it will be a very sad day when it does.
Those that gleefully look forward to the coming collapse of our financial system do not really understand what we will be facing. It won’t be like 2008 when the authorities were able to patch things together and fairly rapidly restore our standard of living. When this thing finally shatters, nobody is going to be able to put the pieces back together like they were before ever again.
This is a very dark time. As I have stressed repeatedly, the elements for a “perfect storm” have been rapidly coming together, and 2019 is going to look a whole lot different than 2018 did.
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