Monday, December 31, 2018

Small-car COE price lowest in 8 years

Small-car COE price lowest in 8 years

Certificate of entitlement (COE) prices ended mostly lower in the latest tender yesterday as demand remained lukewarm in the face of weak consumer sentiment.

The COE price for cars up to 1,600cc and 130bhp closed 5.7 per cent lower at $23,568, its lowest level since March 2010.

The premium for cars above 1,600cc or 130bhp finished 0.3 per cent lower at $31,001. The price for the Open COE, which can be used for any vehicle type except motorcycles, but which ends up mostly for bigger cars, also closed 0.3 per cent lower at $30,851.

The commercial-vehicle premium ended 1.8 per cent lower at $27,009.

The motorcycle premium bucked the trend to end 13.7 per cent higher at $3,399 as sliding prices brought new buyers in from the sidelines.

But car dealers said soft premiums had less of an impact on their customers.

Mr Ron Lim, head of sales and marketing at Nissan agent Tan Chong Motor, said: "The market has been very weak. I think buyers are apprehensive of the uncertain economic outlook for 2019."

He said Category A buyers (cars up to 1,600cc) are "more sensitive to this kind of sentiment". Category B (cars above 1,600cc) is not much better, but has been held up by demand for cars on the back of Indonesian ride-hailing firm Gojek's arrival.

The Straits Times understands that although Gojek does not subscribe to an asset-owning strategy (unlike Uber, which has since exited the market), its dealer partners have had to buy a sizeable fleet of hybrid cars. Hybrid cars, which are typically Category B models, are favoured by drivers because of their superior fuel efficiency.

Mr Lim noted that the market now is "very buyer-driven". "If buyers still do not find the current prices attractive, premiums will fall further," he added.

Parc Esta

OpenTorque Singapore

Investors ‘likely experienced declines in annual returns’

A little post-Christmas love from Santa Claus to end 2018 won’t be enough to turn the tide for an ugly December and a brutal 2018 that cut across a broad swath of Wall Street, ranging from stocks to commodities.

Indeed, while investors had spent much of the long-running bull market in stocks arguing that “there was no alternative” to equities, the past year saw investors lament that there was “nowhere to hide” as asset classes across the board came under pressure.

No matter the investment, “investors likely experienced declines in annual returns. Indeed, even though U.S. REITs and the dollar recorded total returns in excess of 4.5%, declines were seen in bonds, gold, oil, preferred stocks and U.S. equities, along with developed international and emerging market indices,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, in a Monday note.

Opinion: Every investor was humbled in 2018, so it’s wise to figure out what happened and why

U.S. stocks moved to the upside on Monday, building on a rebound that saw major indexes on Friday post their first weekly rises of the month. But the S&P 500 SPX, +0.85%  and Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.15%  still logged their worst monthly declines since February 2009 and their worst December performances since 1931, while the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.77%   which fell into bear-market territory earlier this month, saw its worst December since 2002.

For the year, the S&P 500 fell 6.2%, the Dow dropped 5.6% and the Nasdaq Composite shed 3.9%, marking the worst annual performance for all three since 2008.

For a detailed breakdown of 2018 U.S. stock market performance, check out: Dow industrials and S&P 500: The best- and worst-performing stocks of 2018

Major equity markets outside the U.S. largely suffered even more. China’s Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.44%  fell 24.6% in 2018, the biggest annual fall since 2008, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +1.34%  shed 13.6% for its biggest fall since 2011, according to data compiled by Dow Jones Market Data.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index NIK, -0.31%  fell 12.1%, for its biggest fall since 2008.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 SXXP, +0.42%  fell 13.2% for 2018, its biggest decline since 2008.

Emerging-market stocks were punished in part by a stronger dollar, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF EEM, -0.46%  falling over 17%, its worst performance since 2015, according to FactSet.

As noted, a down year for stocks was uncharacteristically also a down year for bonds. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.00%  rose 27.6 basis points, its largest annual rise since 2013. Yields and debt prices move in opposite directions. The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF AGG, +0.25%  fell 2.6%, its biggest decline since 2013.

On the commodity front, gold futures GCG9, +0.13%  ended the year on a strong note but were still poised to log a nearly 2% annual loss, based on the most-active contract. Crude futures tumbled sharply in the fourth quarter, slumping into a bear market after hitting nearly four-year highs in early October. The U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate crude CLG9, +1.06%  , was down around 40% from its high and saw a 2018 fall of 24.8%, the largest annual drop since 2015.

As for the dollar, the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.38% which tracks the currency against a basket of six major rivals, fell 1.2% in December, trimming its 2018 gain to 4.3%, still its strongest rise since 2015.

Looking at stocks, Stovall said investors might take comfort from a look at the gap in performance between the sectors of the S&P Composite 1500 Index, which is made of up of the large-cap S&P 500, MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600.

Through Friday, the gap between the return for the top-performing sector, health care (up 5%) and the worst-performing sector, energy (down 18.5%), was 23.5 percentage points, well below the long-term average gap between top and bottom sectors, stretching back to 1970, of 41 percentage points.

In years following a below-average differential, the S&P 500 saw a positive full-year total return 91% of the time, he noted, versus a positive run only 60% of the time when the spread was above average.

Sunday, December 30, 2018

This Is Exactly The Kind Of Behavior That You Would Expect During A Stock Market Implosion…

If a doctor tells you that his patient’s condition is swinging up and down wildly, is that a good sign or a bad sign?  Of course the answer to that question is quite obvious.  And if a doctor tells you that his patient’s condition is “stable”, is that a good sign or a bad sign?  Just like in the medical world, instability is not something that is a desirable thing on Wall Street, and right now we are witnessing extreme volatility on an almost daily basis.  On Thursday, the Dow was already down several hundred points when I went out to do some grocery shopping with my wife, and at the low point of the day it had fallen 611 points.  But then a “miracle happened” and the Dow ended the day with an increase of 260 points.  As I detailed yesterday, this is precisely the sort of behavior that you would expect during a chaotic bear market.

As Fox Business has noted, bear market rallies are typically “sharp, quick and usually short”.  I figured that the momentum from Wednesday would carry over into the early portion of Thursday, so I was surprised when the Dow was down by so much as we neared the middle of the day.  But then around 2 PM we witnessed an extraordinary market surge…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a 865-point swing in less than two hours. The blue-chip index had been down in mid-afternoon more than 500 points to cut the previous session’s gains in half, before bargain hunters and short covering turned a big decline into a modest gain.

An 865 point swing in less than two hours is not “normal”.

In fact, it is about as far from “normal” as you can get.

Let’s talk about short covering for a moment.  During huge market downturns, speculators often try to make a lot of money very rapidly by shorting stocks.  But if momentum suddenly shifts, those short sellers can be caught with their pants down and the consequences can be quite dramatic.  The following comes from Marketwatch…

Indeed, market veterans warn that massive, one-day rallies are often more characteristic of downturns, occurring as selloffs lead to significantly oversold technical conditions that leave markets ripe for short covering only to give way to renewed selling once the frenzy of forced buying is exhausted. Investors who short a stock are essentially betting that its price will fall by first borrowing the shares, but those traders can be forced to buy shares back if prices suddenly swing higher, which, in turn, can amplify price swings.

In addition, it appears that on Thursday there was more of the “forced pension rebalancing” that Zero Hedge has been talking about…

It certainly has the smell of a massive pension reallocation as the moment stocks started to surge, bonds were dumped…

No stock market crash in U.S. history has ever gone in a straight line.  There are always huge ups and downs during every market crash, and this market crash is no exception.

Ultimately, there is no way that you can possibly interpret the behavior of the market in recent days as “healthy”…

Here’s the problem: as we discussed last night, since 1990, every comparable reversal – with a few exceptions – came during the 2008-2009 bear market.  According to Bloomberg data, in eight previous bear markets the S&P 500 experienced rallies of greater than 2.5% more than 120 times as the benchmark plunged from peak to trough. From the collapse of Lehman to the financial crisis bottom in March 2009, the S&P 500 rallied more than 4 percent on 13 different occasions.

“This is not the kind of price action you see in normal bull markets,” said Robert Baird equity sales trader Michael Antonelli. “This is just a face ripping short cover rally. I am 100 percent not saying we are in a situation like 2008 now, but look at October 10, 2008 to October 13, 2008: the market rose nearly 12 percent in one day. October 27 to October 28, 2008, it rose 11 percent.”

Meanwhile, it appears that one of America’s most iconic retailers is about to go down in flames.

For years I have been warning that Sears was eventually “going to zero”, and if a last ditch rescue attempt does not materialize by the end of the day on Friday, Sears will be liquidated…

The employer of more than 68,000 filed for bankruptcy in October. Its last shot at survival is a $4.6 billion proposal put forward by its chairman, Eddie Lampert, to buy the company out of bankruptcy through his hedge fund, ESL Investments. ESL is the only party offering to buy Sears as a whole, people familiar with the situation tell CNBC. Without that bid or another like it, liquidators will break the company up into pieces.

But as Lampert stares down a deadline of Dec. 28 to submit his offer, he is quickly running out of time. As of Thursday afternoon, Lampert had neither submitted his bid, nor rounded up financing, the people familiar said.

The inevitable demise of Sears could be seen from a mile away, and the same thing can be said about the country as a whole.

Our debt-fueled standard of living has been propped up by the biggest debt binge in the history of the world, and Wall Street has been transformed into the largest casino on the entire planet.

The entire U.S. economic system has become one huge Ponzi scheme, and all Ponzi schemes ultimately collapse.

Right now, we are in the early stages of a game that is going to take some time to fully play out.  The pessimism that has gripped Wall Street is starting to spread throughout the general population, and many experts were stunned to learn that consumer confidence just declined for a second month in a row…

The confidence Americans feel in the economy fell for the second month in a row and touched the lowest level since last summer, perhaps a sign that worries about the 9 1/2-year U.S. expansion have spread from Wall Street to Main Street.

The consumer confidence index dropped to 128.1 this month from a revised 136.4 in November, the Conference Board said Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 133.3 reading.

If you have been a regular visitor to my websites, then nothing that will happen over the next few months should be a surprise to you.

The inevitable consequences for decades of exceedingly foolish decisions are starting to roll in, and the bursting of “The Bubble To End All Bubbles” is going to be beyond excruciating.

Thursday, December 27, 2018

How To Buy Property In The UK

How To Buy Property In The UK

​Overseas property is a commodity now and if there is one country where buying such property is an adventure, it's the UK.

From modern condominiums to old manors and period homes, the UK has a wealth of property types waiting to be seen, bought and lived in.

With such an eclectic range of homes to choose from, you can potentially find your dream house somewhere in the UK.

However, property prices vary on the locations. For example, property costs in London are higher because it is a popular and well-connected city.

Other popular cities are Manchester, Bristol and Edinburgh.  Infrastructure and transportation are well integrated in these locations which are some of the reasons why property prices are higher there.

Therefore, you will need to determine beforehand if your budget meets the location.

How to buy
As a foreigner, it is advisable to look at a house twice before you decide to negotiate for a deal. Once you decide if the property is what you are looking for, you can then put in an offer.

The offer can be any amount you feel the property is worth and need not be the asking price.

Be aware that there is no guarantee your offer will be accepted as you may be bidding for the property alongside others.

The buyer should also be wary of any last minute outbids. This is considered gazumping and there are no laws protecting the buyer from it, except for in Scotland.

However, the sellers consider two other things than just price before making their decision.

1. Chain: This means you have a UK property you intend to sell to fund your new purchase. Being in a chain lowers your chances drastically.

2. Cash buyer: You can pay immediately as you are not reliant on a mortgage.

If you are a cash buyer and are not ‘chaining' properties, you stand a higher chance of a successful bid over others.

Should your offer be accepted, you will now need to hire an estate agent, solicitor and sanction an official survey of the property.

These costs will be borne by you.

If the survey results are not to your liking or if you have simply changed your mind, you can rescind your interest in the property with no penalty.

As long as the contracts have not been exchanged, you can pull out of the purchase at any point.

However, the owner is also at liberty to pull his property out of the sale or switch buyers if someone outbids. If this happens, you will lose all money you have already spent in hiring a solicitor and having the survey done.

During the survey period, your solicitor will make searches on and about the property on your behalf. The solicitor will also iron out all contractual problems with the seller's lawyer.

After the contract is finalized, you can exchange contracts.

Once contracts are exchanged, the deal is official and neither party can back out.

The purchase will be completed roughly within seven days, after which, you can move in.

Legality
Even though there are no legal restrictions in purchasing property in the UK, it is advisable to verify with a tax advisor before you hire a solicitor.

This is because you, as a foreigner, may be expected to pay stamp duty and capital gains tax. Income tax is a necessity should you receive any rental income.

The specialist tax advisor will be able to assist you in this. They will also advise you on the best type of survey to commission and the costs involved.

Finance

If you are not paying full in cash, there are mortgage alternatives you can consider.

Sterling mortgages are available to non-residents although the rates you receive may be less favourable compared to a UK buyer who is borrowing.

You will need to fulfil a range of criteria to be eligible for non-resident mortgages however.

These criteria are;
• Age: The loan will run for 25 years or until you reach your retirement age
• Affordability: your existing finances and if you are able to afford the property
• Rental income: How much you are expecting to charge for rental should you choose to lease
• Finances: If you are self-employed, you must provide minimum 3 years of your income

Most loans available to foreigners also require a 35% deposit. However, you should be able to opt for a traditional residential mortgage or a buy-to-let loan.

If neither of these mortgages is available, you should still be able to choose between a fixed rate loan and a base rate tracker.

Consult your solicitor or estate agent on the best loans available and consider all your options carefully.

sources:  globalpropertyguide.com, home.co.uk


Zac Property Singapore